Dec.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Trump Has a Vision for National Security

Donald Trump has released his national security strategy, and it is very different from Joe Biden's. Biden's emphasized being friends with other democracies and opposing Russia and China. Trump's view of the world is tripolar. The U.S. gets to dominate North and South America, Russia gets to be the boss over Europe, and China owns Asia. Basically, big countries get whatever they want, and tough luck for everyone else.

There is a renewed emphasis in the plan on the Western Hemisphere, essentially a revived version of the Monroe Doctrine. Here are some of the key aspects of the new strategy:

• The Caribbean: There will be much more emphasis on the Caribbean and suspect drug-smuggling boats, even though relatively few drugs are smuggled into the U.S. by boat. A possible war with Venezuela with the goal of getting rid of strongman Nicolás Maduro is a real possibility, despite Trump's campaign promise to stay out of foreign wars. If Trump carries out his threat to invade Venezuela and U.S. troops are killed in action. That won't go over well with the America First types. In the worst case scenario, a few U.S. pilots are shot down and taken hostage. All the bluster in the world won't get the hostages released. Unfortunately for Trump, he can't ask Jimmy Carter about hostage crises because he's dead. Sometimes these things don't turn out so well. Tariffs will also be used to pound countries in the Hemisphere into submission, although the Supreme Court could throw a monkey wrench in that plan.
  
  
• Europe: Trump's view (which he is undoubtedly getting from the two Steves—Bannon and Miller) is that European civilization is surrendering itself to hordes of immigrants, so he is allying himself with far-right political parties that want to block all immigration. Trump could very well meddle in intra-European affairs to help friendly (i.e., neo-fascist) parties there. He also wants the war in Ukraine to end, and the easiest route is by getting Ukraine to surrender. The Ukrainians might not be so keen on that, though.
  
  
• Taiwan: There is no major change on Taiwan. The strategy is to keep China from taking over Taiwan but without saying so out loud, so as to not antagonize China, which sees Taiwan as a breakway province. The plan also has calls to pressure Japan, South Korea, Australia, and of course, Taiwan, to increase defense spending so the U.S. doesn't have to spend more in the region.
  
  
• Middle East: The plan notes that the only reason the U.S. was every interested in this backward region was because it had a lot of oil. Now that the U.S. is self-sufficient in fossil fuels—and is indeed, a net exporter of them—Trump doesn't care what happens there. Disentangling from the Middle East is easier said than done, though, since an important part of Trump's base, the evangelicals, cares very much what happens in Israel.
  
  
• Democrats: The Democrats slammed the plan as a global retreat that makes the U.S. and its allies weaker. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said that the plan "foreshadows setbacks—forsaking allies, throwing Ukraine under the bus, and abandoning key strategic goals and basic values. It will make America weaker, not safer. America first is America alone, and we'll pay the price."

What is almost as important as what is in the plan is what is not in the plan. Russia is barely mentioned. If gets 4 paragraphs and there is no mention of it invading a neighboring democratic country and starting a war that has already led to 1.5 million casualties. Instead, the plan seems to depict the U.S. as a neutral party, not supporting Russia but also not supporting Ukraine or Europe.

Also missing is the almost daily battle with Chinese government hackers who are constantly probing U.S. government and corporate networks, looking for weaknesses and possibly planting trapdoors and time bombs for future use. There is no discussion of China as a future military threat to the United States and how the U.S. plans to counter it, if at all. This absence could be because Trump is planning to visit China in April and wants to be received as a hero and feted, not treated as a fearsome enemy.

Additionally, there is nothing at all about North Korea, which is estimated now to have 60 nuclear weapons. Nor is there anything about Iran, whose nuclear weapons program will probably be back to full strength soon after the botched bombing of their nuclear facilities in June.

In the past, these plans talked about containing hostile and rogue countries and limiting their reach on the world stage. There is none of that in this one.

Keep in mind, this is only a plan. Execution is also important. Is Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth up to pulling off such a major revision of America's role in the world? We may find out the hard way. (V)