Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump very much wants the House to stay Republican in 2026 (lest it impeach him again). Consequently, he is bugging every state with a Republican trifecta and some Democratic representatives to rejigger the districts to flip the Democratic seats. Indiana was somewhat hesitant to do that, but he kept up the pressure and now the Indiana House has passed a bill that would probably change the 2D, 7R delegation to 0D, 9R if passed.
However, the state Senate is not on board yet. One of Trump's allies, Turning Point USA, is also turning up the heat on state senators who don't like the idea of midterm redistricting. It has informed the senators that it would spend upwards of $100 million to defeat all the state senators who won't play ball. The Club for Growth also issued a final warning to the senators that anyone voting against the new map would be defeated in a primary next year. The state Senate will soon vote on the map. It remains to be seen if the state senators who opposed this move will be able to resist the pressure.
If Indiana flips the Democratic seats, it will join Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, which have also redrawn maps to favor the Republicans. Florida is working on flipping as many as four or five seats.
The only blue state to have done this so far is California, although Virginia and Illinois are likely to do so early next year. The courts gave the Democrats a break in Utah, which will likely flip one red seat blue.
A big unknown is when the Supreme Court will kill off what is left of the Voting Rights Act. This will set off a feeding frenzy in the South eliminate all minority-majority districts. Most states there have one or two and they are probably toast if the Court acts fast enough. If it acts after the filing deadlines it will be too late. It should be noted that the courts hate to change election rules close to an election, but there is no rule about changing the rules close to a filing deadline.
It is conceivable some of these maps could backfire if there is a blue tsunami. All these states have Democrats, and they have to be put somewhere. A state legislature that drew a map with a number of R+5 districts, in order to maximize the number of districts the Republicans were hoping to win, might not like the results if the current generic House poll of D+7 is correct and holds until Election Day. Then many of the R+5 districts might turn blue. Also, widespread gerrymandering is something the voters don't like and it is easy for Democrats to pin it on Trump. (V)