Dec.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Kristi Noem Is in Trouble...

Donald Trump was very embarrassed by the high rate of turnover in his first Cabinet. There are numerous, credible reports that he decreed that EVERYONE appointed to Trump v2.0 would make it to at least the 1-year mark, no matter what. Well, the 1-year mark is now just over a month away. Meanwhile, things are not going so well for Trump—electorally (see above), economically, Epstein-ally, and in many other ways. Since his problems are NEVER his fault, he is going to be on the lookout for scapegoats. Add it all up, and the first parting of the ways between Trump v2.0 and a Cabinet officer may soon be upon us.

There are, of course, many places that will allow you to bet on various developments in politics. We're going to use PredictIt here, because unlike PaddyPower and other European books, it's not blocked in the United States. Here are the betting patterns when it comes to "which will be the first Trump Cabinet official to go?":

It is interesting that people are betting on Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. Those positions were pretty stable even during the highly unstable Trump v1.0, with Secretary of Energy Rick Perry lasting two years, and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin hanging on for Trump's entire first term.

It is also interesting who is NOT attracting any action. Tulsi Gabbard is crazypants, and is unreliable (and possibly unstable), so we get her inclusion. But isn't the same true of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? And couldn't the time soon come that there's heat on the administration over all the sick and dying kids, with Kennedy getting thrown under the bus? We are less surprised that "Attorney General" Pam Bondi and FBI "Director" Kash Patel are not drawing any bets; they've both generated a lot of the wrong kind of headlines, but Trump places enormous value on fawning lackeys who are willing to completely surrender themselves to him.

In any case, the trendlines that are of most interest are the ones for Secretary of Playing Soldier Defense Pete Hegseth and for DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. We have a long item on Hegseth in the hopper, which we will get to soon. Today, we want to address Noem, who is apparently in the doghouse these days. And if anyone should know the dangers of the doghouse, it's her.

Why is Noem in trouble, at least potentially? That's a little murky, but there appear to be a number of things working against her:

• Noem's chief adviser is her lover longtime ally Corey Lewandowski. Lewandowski has an ego almost as large as that of Trump himself, and is deeply impressed with his own importance and his own influence. So, he's stepped on many hundreds of toes, and has alienated many people in both DHS and in the White House. Inasmuch as this administration is basically the Hunger Games, writ large, there is a huge target on Lewandowski's back, which means there's a target on Noem's back.
  
  
• Noem has been utterly fanatical about imposing Trump's anti-immigrant agenda. But she's done it in a way that is politically unpopular. There is, of course, no way to do the things Noem has done AND to have them be popular, but the President regularly takes up residence in a fantasy world where he can have his cake and eat it, too. So, he seems to believe that the next wave of enforcement actions, likely to commence in January, can be accomplished in a way that the American people will love, love, love. And he may be thinking that someone else is going to be needed to pull that off.
  
  
• Speaking of someone else, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is out of a job on January 15, and has made no secret of his desire to join the Trump Cabinet. Trump has much more respect for male businessmen than he does for women of any sort, and he prefers as many male members in his Cabinet as is possible. So, he might be in the process of convincing himself that Youngkin can do a more lovable job of deploying the Blackshirts ICE than Noem can.
  
  
• Noem has embarrassed the administration several times, like the time earlier this year she did not know what "habeas corpus" means, or the time, earlier this week, where she wore a ridiculous sombrero at a Mexican restaurant while celebrating her birthday.

You never know what will happen with this president, as his decisions mostly depend on whoever had his ear most recently. However, there are enough Noem rumors circling that she almost certainly is in danger. And if Stephen Miller or Laura Loomer happen to decide she's just not quite loyal enough, she's certainly done for. (Z)