Dem
47
GOP
53
Republican muckety mucks might not admit it on the record, but they know they've got a potential candidate quality problem in Ohio. And, this week, they got one in Minnesota, as well.
Starting with the Buckeye State, Vivek Ramaswamy has cleared the Republican field of any serious competition, largely because he has the White House and the GOP establishment fully behind him. However, he's got some pretty serious weaknesses. He's crazypants, first of all, and says a lot of impolitic things, particularly about women. He's also got no experience in public office, and there are certainly some people who don't believe the governorship of a large state should be an entry-level job. Oh, and he's brown. Just as there are some Democrats (and even more Republicans) who won't vote for a woman, there are some Republicans who won't vote for a non-white person.
Meanwhile, the near-certain Democratic nominee is Amy Acton. To the extent that Democrats can come up with a "nightmare" matchup for Ramaswamy, she's it. First, she's a woman, and things like abortion access are going to be key issues in this campaign. She's also got extensive experience in the public sector, having served in the Ohio Department of Health, rising to be director of that agency. She has name recognition, and a reservoir of goodwill, from her role in leading the state's response to COVID. It is true that some anti-vaxxers/MAGA types hate her for her work during the pandemic, but those folks were never going to vote Democratic anyhow.
When Acton first announced, polls had her trailing Ramaswamy by as much as 10 points. But more recent polling suggests strongly that she's pulled even, or nearly so. In fact, in two of the last three polls of the race, she led her likely GOP opponent by a point. That includes the new poll from Emerson released this week, which has Acton with 46% support and Ramaswamy with 45%.
Naturally, any poll taken nearly a year before Election Day must be taken with several grains of salt. That said, there are several things about this one that should make the Republicans at least a little nervous. First, Emerson tends to have a slight Republican lean, and so it's less likely that the pollster is overestimating Acton than it would be if this was, say, a PPP poll. Second, and somewhat consistent with the first point, Ramaswamy's best poll of the cycle was from Emerson. Back in August, the pollster had him up 49% to 39%. This suggests there's been real movement, and that this is not just statistical noise.
And the scariest thing, from the GOP perspective, is found in the crosstabs of the new Emerson poll. Back in August, Ramaswamy's lead was being powered by men, who broke for him by nearly 20 points, 54% to 36%. Women voters, at that time, were about evenly split, with 44% for him, 42% for her. In the new poll, Ramaswamy still has a big lead among male voters, 55% to 35%. However, women have swung dramatically toward Acton, now favoring her 56% to 37%.
It is almost impossible that such movement is statistical noise; the pollster almost certainly is capturing real movement toward the Democratic candidate. And when it's so clear what's making Acton competitive, it sends a useful signal to her as to what her campaign themes should be (think: women's issues, like reproductive choice, and affordability issues that women voters are particularly likely to care about, like child care costs). It also sends a useful signal to the many pro-women PACs as to where they should be spending their money.
Meanwhile, there's also a big-time Senate race in Ohio in 2026, and Acton and former senator Sherrod Brown (D) are somewhat joined at the hip. If her tide rises, his probably does, as well. In the last three polls of the likely race against Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Brown was up by 3 (48% to 45%), up by 1 (49% to 48%), and down by 3 (46% to 49%). The worst of those three was the same Emerson poll that had good news for Acton. But Brown is a wily veteran politico, and we would guess that he and Acton are going to be able to put together a much more unified 1-2 messaging punch than Husted and Ramaswamy, primarily because Ramaswamy has loose lips and does not stay on script.
Moving on to Minnesota, the prize for kookiest gubernatorial candidate of the 2026 cycle has already been locked up. It's the MyPillow guy, Mike Lindell (Q), who has been hinting at a run for months, and who officially announced yesterday that he will try to win the right to challenge incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN).
We do not claim to have our finger on the pulse of Minnesota politics. And we recognize that this is a state that has been known to elect some pretty unorthodox people, like Jesse Ventura. But we simply cannot see a world where the people of Minnesota, who are known for being pretty centrist and very down-to-earth, would EVER elect Mike Lindell. And that's before you consider the headwinds that are likely to be caused by Donald Trump's increasing unpopularity, since Lindell is just a Trump avatar/clone.
Assuming we are right, then Lindell can only have one possible impact here. Because he is "a candidate" and because he will presumably stay in through the primaries (August 11), he's going to have a platform, which is what he really cares about. And he's going to be a constant reminder of the nuttiest parts of Trumpism, particularly the conspiratorial thinking about the 2020 elections. He'll be an anchor around the neck of Republican candidates, up and down the ballot, in a year where, once again, Trumpism looks to be out of favor.
We don't dismiss the possibility that Walz could lose his reelection bid, though we wouldn't bet on it, since he's pretty popular, and he polls 5-7 points ahead of all of the potential Republican challengers. What we are sure of is that Lindell is not going to take Walz down. And he's almost certainly going to make it harder for any other Republican who might have a real shot to take Walz down. (Z)