Dec.15

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Could There Be a Truce in the Gerrymandering War?

Some Republicans in Indiana tried, and failed, to draw a new House district map. Donald Trump may turn the screws on them and try to get that reversed, but for the time being, it looks like Indiana will keep the old map. Could this signal a (temporary) truce in the redistricting wars? Democrats in Illinois said that if Indiana redistricted, they would too, but now that Indiana won't maybe Illinois won't either. The state Senate presidents of Indiana and Maryland had a phone call recently and now it looks like Maryland won't redraw, either (note that doing that would have been very difficult).

Still, there could be movement in some other states. Here is the state of play right now:

• Alabama: State Republicans are waiting for a Supreme Court ruling on a Louisiana redistricting case that could kill the Voting Rights Act. If that happens, the legislature will surely try to knock off the two Democrats in the House delegation, Reps. Shomari Figures in Montgomery and Terri Sewell in Birmingham. Both are Black.
  
  
• California: This one is a done deal. The voters approved a new map. It is likely to flip about five Republican seats, thus canceling out what Texas did.
  
  
• Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is champing at the bit to redraw the map as soon as the legislature convenes in January. There are five Democrats in districts ranging from D+2 to D+5. In the absolute best case for the Republicans, they could flip all of them. More likely is a 2-4 seat gain, though, since there are a lot of Democrats in South Florida and they have to go somewhere.
  
  
• Illinois: This is not clear yet. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) has been very aggressive about pushing back on Donald Trump, but some members of the legislature want to cool it now that Indiana is apparently not going for broke.
  
  
• Indiana: The redistricting vote failed and most likely that is the final word for now.
  
  
• Kansas: The top Republicans are all-in on redistricting, but the votes in the legislature may not be there.
  
  
• Louisiana: A Supreme Court ruling relating to Louisiana is pending. Nothing will happen until there is a ruling. There are currently two Democrats in the delegation, one from New Orleans and one from Baton Rouge. Both are racial gerrymanders to comply with the Voting Rights Act. If the Supreme Court kills the Act, both seats are likely to go.
  
  
• Maryland: Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) is enthusiastic about picking off the last Republican in the state's delegation, but the state Senate president is not enthusiastic. Also, a map to do that could be just horrible.
  
  
• Missouri: The state legislature passed a law redoing the map to give themselves an extra seat near Kansas City. Democrats needed 110,000 signature on a petition to hold a referendum on it. They got 300,000, so there is likely to be a public vote. The public does not like this stuff at all.
  
  
• Nebraska: There are no House Democrats in Nebraska, but there is plan to make sure no Democrat could win the D+3 district (NE-02) from which Don Bacon (R-NE) is retiring.
  
  
• New York: State law makes it impossible to redistrict for the 2026 elections, but the Empire State could do it for 2028. So far, not much has happened, but it could.
  
  
• North Carolina: North Carolina passed a law making one Democratic district unwinnable for the Democrats, so R+1 here.
  
  
• Ohio: Ohio was required by its state Constitution to draw a new map because the 2020 map did not have a bipartisan consensus. The new map will probably give the Republicans 2-3 seats. This was not the worst case for the Democrats, though. It could have been worse.
  
  
• Texas: The legislature passed a law that was intended to give the Republicans five new seats. This is what started the current round of tit-for-tat. The map does make some assumptions about how Latinos will vote. If they prove wrong, the haul may not be as much as five. The plan was to make sure every district Republicans are counting on is R+10 or redder. But in special elections this year, Democrats are outperforming 2024 by at least 13 points. If that happens next year, the net haul for Republicans next year might be less than planned.
  
  
• Virginia: The Democratic-controlled legislature is hell-bent on grabbing as many of the Republican seats as they can. VA-01 and VA-02 will be easy. VA-06 is R+6 and will require someone with a graduate degree in gerrymandering, so figure D+2, maybe D+3.
  
  
• Utah: The courts threw out the legislature's map, which split up Salt Lake County among four districts. Now the County is back together and a Democrat will win it.

We are most of the way toward turning the House into the Electoral College. Whichever party controls the state gets all the House seats. It's all or none, which is how the Electoral College works in 48 states. This was definitely not what the Founders had in mind, but who cares about what the Founders wanted when there is power to be had? (V)