Dem
47
GOP
53
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) decided not to allow a vote on extending the expiring ACA subsidies. After all, it might pass and Donald Trump doesn't want that. Neither do the Freedom Caucusers. End of story, right?
Well, no. A number of House moderates in swing districts know that their constituents are hopping mad about the expected spike in health-care premiums and they feel they have to do something about that or be swept away next year. They fumed, but Johnson was adamant: No vote.
Instead, he scheduled a vote on a feeble GOP bill that would pump up Health Savings Accounts a little bit. These accounts allow people to save up for their own health care, with some tax benefits. There was a vote on it in the House yesterday and it passed by a 216-211 party-line vote. It does not include the subsidies the Democrats are fighting for. The bill doesn't have a chance in the Senate, where Democrats will filibuster it. Basically, what it does is make it slightly easier to buy not-great insurance for a low premium. Insurance companies love these policies, because although the premium is low, they almost never have to pay out except under very rare circumstances and then not very much. Most people buying them do not read the fine print until the claim they put in is denied. Then they discover exactly what they have purchased, which is not much.
However, as you may have heard, the House has this thing called a discharge petition. If 218 members sign on, that forces a vote on a bill. We saw it in action recently to force a vote on making the Department of Justice release all the Epstein files. That caught the eye of a number of members, so the Democrats filed a discharge petition to force a vote on a bill to extend the ACA subsidies. They don't have enough votes by themselves, but four Republicans from swing districts saw this as the only way they could survive, so they signed the petition, bringing the number of signatures right to 218, and thus forcing a vote. The Republicans who signed are Reps. Rob Bresnahan (PA), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Ryan Mackenzie (PA), and Mike Lawler (NY).
Donald Trump is going to be furious with this quartet, but if he supports a Trumpy primary opponent for each of them, he can also kiss those four swing seats goodbye. Still, he might do it to spite them. You never know.
The House rules allow the Speaker to delay the vote on discharge petitions for up to 9 legislative days. Johnson is clearly in no hurry to bring this bill up for a vote. Democrats tried to force a vote earlier, but their procedural motion was defeated 204-203. Johnson said the vote on the subsidies bill will be held in January. By then, the 22 million Americans who use the ACA would all have learned that their insurance costs for 2026 will skyrocket. Johnson doesn't want that, either. He is in a bit of a bind here. Democrats are going to pound the Republicans on health care for the next 11 months. Many people will definitely notice that their health care costs are going up, no matter how many speeches Donald Trump gives claiming the opposite (see below).
The fact that a second discharge petition has passed within a month against the wishes of both Johnson and Trump show that neither one is all-powerful anymore. As we move into 2026 and Republican representatives begin seriously worrying about their reelection prospects, it will be every man and woman for him/herself. Once the filing deadlines have passed and Trump can no longer endorse primary opponents, Trump will begin to experience full lame duckiness. (V)