Dem
47
GOP
53
Gov. Kathy Hochul (R-NY) is up for reelection in 2026. When Donald Trump nominated Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be ambassador to the U.N. she gave up her leadership position in the House. Then Trump yanked her nomination when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said he needed her vote. Stefanik was thus reduced to a whiny backbencher, so she decided to run for governor of New York.
A new Siena College poll has Hochul beating Stefanik 49% to 30%, a 19-point gap. Maybe Stefanik can gain ground when she is better known, but she is already reasonably well known and that is a VERY big gap. And Stefanik is not even the surefire Republican nominee. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman also wants the nomination. The poll shows him even further behind Hochul, though, 50% to 25%. But that probably doesn't matter because Stefanik is crushing Blakeman for the nomination, 48% to 17%. For any Republican, winning an election for governor of New York is a huge long shot. That's doubly true for a MAGA Republican.
Hochul also has some competition. Her own hand-picked lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado (D), is running against her. Nice guy. Although the voters are lukewarm on Hochul, they like Delgado even less. She is leading him 56% to 13%. So if everything here holds, it will be Hochul vs. Stefanik and Hochul will win easily. (V)