Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, we had an item mentioning a Marist poll putting Donald Trump's approval at 39%. Today, we have a new Ipsos poll also showing him at 39%. This extra bit of data suggests that it might be true. This is not the lowest Ipsos poll number for Trump this year. In November, they had Trump at 38%. Other pollsters have had him as low as 36%. Being under 40% is never good for a president, especially in a midterm year.
And the effect of polling in the 30s weakens a president in other ways besides being a drag on his party during elections, especially if he is a second-term president. He is increasingly viewed as a lame duck, which makes members of his party less afraid to challenge him on anything (see Redistricting, Indiana). It also makes the opposition bolder and encourages grassroots opposition. Once a narrative of "the president is weak" takes hold, he's toast.
Of course, presidents can rally from being unpopular, but doing "more of the same" usually isn't the best way to break the slump, and Trump is not very flexible. Maybe he thinks starting a war with Venezuela will cause a rally-round-the-flag effect, but many MAGA supporters voted for him due to his promise to keep America out of foreign wars. They won't like him starting one. (V)