Dem
47
GOP
53
If nothing happens on the health care front this year—and Congress went on Christmas vacation Friday and won't be back until January, so it probably won't—ACA premiums will skyrocket and people will have to quickly make very unpleasant choices that will lock them in for a year. There will be horror stories all over the media about this, many of them personal stories about some family's dire situation. This is almost sure to resonate with other people in the same boat, and will drive the 2026 election campaigns.
The Washington Post ran a doozy yesterday. It is about Stacy Newton, her husband, and their two teenagers. They live in Teton County, WY. They use the ACA, but there is only one insurance company in their county, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Wyoming. It is offering a plan for an annual premium of $43,000 for the cheapest plan. The Newtons are a middle-class family. The parents each run a small business, but there is no way they can pay $43,000 for health insurance. But they need it because Stacy has chronic leukemia. What are they supposed to do? And also important, who will they blame and who will they vote for next November?
The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation has determined that, starting in 2026, there will be 146 counties with only one insurance company offering ACA plans. That number is expected to jump if the ACA subsidies are not renewed in January. When there is a monopoly, prices usually don't go down. There are many counties that have two insurers, but it really doesn't guarantee much competition. Often what happens is that the bigger one sets its premiums and the smaller one sets its premiums just slightly below that, enough to attract some customers but not enough to annoy the bigger one and set off a price war. The bigger one just accepts the loss of a small number of customers rather than cut prices for everyone and get into a price war.
The scenario that is going to play out next year is that healthy families that can't afford a $43,000 annual premium will drop insurance and join a church to pray for good health. This will make the pool of insurees full of sick people, which will cause the insurance companies to either raise premiums or get out of the state altogether.
Heather Huhn knows this. She is an insurance broker in Jackson, WY. People come to her begging for affordable insurance, but she can give them only what the insurance companies offer. She has a stack of applications from 30 families in her "Hold Tight" stack. These are for people who have immediate medical needs, such as chronic conditions or expensive prescriptions and who cannot afford $43,000 or anything close to that. She says they sit across from her and say: "I just don't know what to do." She tells them to try to avoid a mental breakdown just yet. Maybe the government will get something done eventually.
State officials are talking about a cheap plan they are calling "BearCare." It would cover emergency situations, like being attacked by a bear or having a heart attack, but would not cover ongoing or chronic conditions. You would be on your own for those. Margie Lynch (58), an energy consultant, said that would not work for her. She is not worried about being bitten by a bear, but she is worried about getting cancer. For her alone, the cheapest ACA plan is $19,000 per year but she would have to pay a deductible of $10,600 before it kicks in. She says the plan is as expensive as her mortgage.
Newton, Lynch, and others have shared their concerns with Sens. John Barrasso (R-WY), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY). All three oppose the ACA and would like to be rid of it. They also oppose the enhanced subsidies that were instituted by Joe Biden and which the Democrats want. Barrasso is not up until 2030 and Lummis is retiring, so they don't care. Hageman, of course, is up in 2026. We wonder if Newton and Lynch will vote for her.
As this process unfolds, there are going to be an endless stream of stories all over the media about families like the Newtons and brokers like Huhn. This is going to force the story into the news and people will demand that something be done. Since the Republicans control the show, they will be the ones expected to deliver. If they don't, they will hear about it come next November. (V)