Dem
47
GOP
53
Turning Point USA helped turn out millions of young people for Donald Trump in 2024. He promised them lower prices, an end to foreign wars, and generational change. He is not keeping any of his promises and they have noticed. At this year's annual America Fest gathering, a CNN reporter talked to attendees and got decidedly mixed messages. One thought Trump's energy policies will lower gas prices, his dismantling of the Department of Education will make college debt go away, and his cracking down on immigrants will create jobs and lower housing prices. It is true that "drill baby drill" may lower gas prices, but getting rid of the DoEd will not make college debt vanish. Arresting immigrants might make their jobs available, but the reason employers hire them is that many are willing to work for less than native-born workers. As to lowering housing prices, replacing cheap immigrant labor with much more expensive American labor is not going to achieve that result, to say the least.
And many other respondents were disillusioned about their future. In the past, kids would move out of their parents' house at 18, go to college or get some kind of training, find a job, get married, buy a house, and have kids. Now, only a quarter of 34-year-olds have done all of those. The median age of first-time homebuyers is now 40. Some interviewees thought they might be able to buy a house some day, whereas previous generations assumed that would be possible. In a recent Harris poll, two-thirds of the people making $100,000 said they were just barely getting by. Many think AI will take away jobs they might have gotten.
The mood was glum and "doomerism" has taken over with many young people. Only 13% of 18-to-29-year-olds think the country is moving in the right direction. These feelings are flashing warnings for Trump and the Republicans heading into the midterms. The kids are angry and don't want "more of the same." Charlie Kirk was tuned into this, which is why he was so popular with some young people. In one of his final interviews, Kirk accused the Republicans of being blind to the suffering of young voters. Kirk also said that if the Republicans continued to repeat their "pull yourself up by the bootstraps" philosophy, the Party would squander its hard-won advantage among young voters. It is already happening. In the Harris poll, by a 13-point margin, young voters want Democrats to control Congress after 2026. Only half of young Trump voters definitely plan to vote in 2026 (vs. 66% of Kamala Harris voters).
While the rank-and-file TP USA members are grumbling, the leadership of the movement has other plans. Erica Kirk has already endorsed J.D. Vance for president and vowed to get him elected president in 2028. Her group is planning to put volunteers in all of Iowa's 99 counties to try to help Vance win the Iowa caucuses.
But the reaction to this was mixed as people are now openly talking about a post-Trump era. Vance's wife, Usha, has been spotted several times without her wedding ring and there have been rumors that Vance might be interested in trading her in for a whiter model, which would go over better with the America Firsters in 2028. This photo of Kirk and Vance did not help dispel these rumors. They seem to be enjoying themselves here.
Besides being real friendly with Erica Kirk, Vance gave a speech at America Fest. He glossed over the brewing fight within the Republican Party about whether the Party should accept the antisemitism, hate speech, and general all-purpose bigotry espoused by Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, and others on the far right. Vance clearly did not denounce them, as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has done. Vance said everyone is welcome in the big conservative tent. When you make Ted Cruz look like a serious statesman that is quite an achievement. There is clearly a growing split within MAGA, with Fuentes, Owens, Carlson, and others on one side and Laura Loomer, conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and others opposing them. So far only people paying close attention to conservative politics notice this, but it is sure to go mainstream at some point (the article linked to in the first sentence of this paragraph is from The New York Times). Then Vance will have to choose. Are people like Fuentes welcome or not? How he handles this could be a big test of his moral character and political skills. Actually, we already have a pretty good idea about his moral character but how good his political skills are is still an open question.
Not everyone is on board with crowning Vance as the heir apparent. Kayleigh McEnany, one of Trump's press secretaries in Trump v1.0, went on Fox News Saturday to say "I think it's very important that the Republican Party have a competitive primary." (Hint: She does not want Vance as the nominee.) She won't be the last person saying that. In fact, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has already ruled out the possibility of his endorsing Vance. Usually, the presidential campaigns have the decency to wait until the midterms are over before getting going. No more. And anyone who thinks Vance is a lock this far in advance ought to have a word with President Giuliani about how well that worked for him in 2008. (V)