Dem
47
GOP
53
Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson runs focus groups and talks to voters all the time. She has noted a peculiarity with respect to voting. What the voters say they want and how they vote are often in conflict.
In the focus groups, voters tell her over and over how they hate how divided the country has become and how nasty politics now is. They want to change it. They really do. In the 13 federal elections from 2000 onward, 11 times either at least one chamber of Congress or the White House changed hands. Only in 2004 and 2012 did nothing change.
Why do we keep ratcheting up the toxicity when most people hate it? In marketing, this divide is known as "stated preferences" vs. "revealed preferences." It is the difference between what people say they want and what they actually want. For example, people say they hate how the airlines cram them in like sardines, give them a small packet of pretzels for dinner, and nickel and dime them on everything (didn't bring your own seat belt? Fine. We can rent you ours for $10). But the people actually buy the cheapest tickets, which pushes the airlines to reduce services in order to offer the lowest fares.
When it comes to elections, people in focus groups say they want honest, truthful, and caring leaders who will bring the country together. Then they vote for the most extreme candidate their party offers. Politicians know this, so in many primaries, the candidates compete to be the most extreme. Both sides do it. Republicans are legendary for doing this, and take their extremes to particularly extreme places, but the blue team does it as well. Just watch the primary for NY-12, which stretches from Union Square to the northern end of Central Park in midtown Manhattan. There Republican-turned-temporary-Democrat George Conway and JFK's grandson, Jack Schlossberg, will spend the next 6 months each claiming they HATE Donald Trump with the heat of 100 suns, no 1,000 suns, no make that 10,000 suns, no, I bid 100,000 suns. Working together with him for the good of the country? Are you out of your mind?
Many voters actually feel that unity is a luxury good. When the other side comes to its senses, we can try it, but first they have to be crushed into submission. Then we can talk unity. When Texas drew a new congressional map, did Christians in California turn the other cheek? Are you kidding? When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) mocked Trump on eX-Twitter and made him look like a fool, did Democrats scold him? No, they made him the (temporary) frontrunner for 2028. This is a revealed preference. Yet when polled, 87% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans say the country is near a breaking point. But when they vote, they choose to make it worse. (V)