Dec.27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Lessons, Part II: The Contrarian Is Not a Merryman This Christmas

Actually, in this particular case, The Contrarian isn't a man at all. After Jen Rubin left The Washington Post, she joined with Norm Eisen to form the Substack The Contrarian. Pieces for that site are all published under that name, though they are also signed by the particular author of the piece, as well.

To round out the year, Rubin penned an item headlined "Lessons from 2025," a year that definitely did not leave her a merrywoman. We're going to give an executive summary of what she wrote, and then add our thoughts at the end. Here's Rubin's 10 lessons:

1. Democrats Refuse to Lead: Rubin writes that, at the start of Trump v2.0, some Democrats said they could work with him, get things done for the benefit of the country, etc. Then, she says they caved in March on the continuing resolution. They caved again after the shutdown. They always cave. She says that what we learned in 2025 is that only an angry base can make them sort of stick up for what they believe in. The next test is in January when there could be another shutdown. What will the Democrats do if Trump simply refuses to budge?
   
   
2. Republicans Don't Care About Their Own Constituents: Republicans repeatedly do things that predominantly hurt their own constituents (e.g., SNAP, funding rural hospitals, etc.). They simply don't care what happens to their constituents because they know the constituents will never blame the GOP. If Republicans pass a bill that will shutter rural hospitals, Republican politicians will blame the Democrats and their base will believe it. Democrats have to stop thinking: "If they do [some horrendous thing], then their base will get hurt and the Republican politicians will suffer." Not how it works.
   
   
3. The Supreme Court Cannot Be Shamed: There was a time when the Supreme Court was partisan but tried to be subtle about it, so nobody would notice. We are beyond that. For the most part, the Court has become an arm of the Republican Party. Once in a while it does something that the Party doesn't want, so as to distract from the fact that it gives the GOP (and Donald Trump) their wishes 90% of the time. Their attitude is simply: "What are you going to do about it?" The six Republican justices are just working on the assumption that either: (1) the Democrats won't get the trifecta in 2028 or (2) they will get it but won't have the stomach to "reform" the Court (e.g., expanding it or stripping it of jurisdiction in some areas). So they can do whatever they want with no penalty.
   
   
4. Winning Requires Winning Public Opinion: Politicians, and to some extent Supreme Court justices, keep an eye on public opinion. As long as it is divided, they can ignore it. However, when it is very heavily on one side on some issue, they do pay attention. People who want to save democracy need to convince the public that it is worth saving and that this is a Big Deal. We are not there by any means now.
   
   
5. "Electability" Is a Myth: On paper, before their first election, no one thought Donald Trump, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), or Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani (D) was electable. They were wrong. But they thought Terry McAuliffe in Virginia in 2021 and Bob Casey Jr. in 2024 were highly electable. Wrong again. The voters decide, not the pundits.
   
   
6. Christian Nationalists Are Not Christians: If you mean "Christian" in the sense of someone who believes in Jesus Christ and lives their lives as he instructed them to do, Christian nationalists are not Christians at all. They are white supremacists. Very different category. Jesus never talked about separating children from their families, blowing up people on the high seas, taking food away from hungry people, and telling strangers to get the hell out. The Very New Testament makes the New Testament obsolete.
   
   
7. There Are No Normie Republicans Anymore: Some people are hoping that the normie Republicans will strike back and take over from the MAGAts. Guess what? There aren't any normies anymore. They have all sold their souls to Donald Trump. Maybe when he exits the White House (or, more likely, when he exits this plane of being) they will rediscover where they misplaced their souls, but not until. Waiting for this is like waiting for Godot.
   
   
8. No Lie Is Too Big: Every time Donald Trump tells a lie so preposterous that no one can believe he means it (e.g., babies born on U.S. soil are not Americans, he can have a third term) many people say: Even his supporters won't swallow that. Wrong! They will. No lie is so big that his base will say: "He is clearly lying." Or mad.
   
   
9. Trump's Supporters Don't Support Everything He Is Doing: In poll after poll, about 40% of the voters approve of Trump, but when asked about things he is doing, many fewer approve. They like him personally, but don't necessarily like masked federal agents grabbing people, including American citizens, off the streets and locking them up for deportation. They don't like his record on affordability. They don't like his tariffs. They just like him.
   
   
10. The Public Is the Key: The key to stopping Trump is getting the public off the couch and engaged. It is not easy since most people are too busy trying to survive to pay attention to little things like democracy. But if enough people say "enough" and actually vote next year, that could be the beginning of the end. Abraham Lincoln once said: "Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed." It is still true.

And now, our thoughts. First, we recognize that Rubin and Eisen are writing as "The Contrarian," and that the brand dictates that they have to say things critical of both sides. But (Z), in particular, finds "the Democrats are disorganized" and "the Democrats always cave" to be lazy analysis, relying primarily on clichés.

The Democrats are the "big tent" party, and have been for close to 100 years (since the New Deal era). By definition, the "big tent" party is going to be pulled in more directions than the smaller tent party, especially now that the GOP has basically purged all the Rockefeller Republicans. Also, you know what you get when nobody in a political party is willing to speak up and be contrarian? You get MAGA.

As to the Democrats caving and/or not leading, they currently control zero-thirds of the trifecta in Washington. There was a time when the minority party had some meaningful amount of power in Congress, but that time is not today. And yet, despite these serious institutional obstacles, the blue team has held the Republicans' feet to the fire. They stuck the GOP with ownership of the shutdown and health care. They forced a surrender on the Epstein files discharge petition, and they got two other discharge petitions through the House in the span of a month, which is a larger total than in the previous 30 years. The Democrats also saved SNAP for the next year, which is no small thing for those folks who depend on the program. We're not the only ones who see things this way; Politico's Nicholas Wu and Meredith Lee Hill also noticed that Congressional Democrats have been doing an awful lot of winning, for the minority party.

And, of course, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and their colleagues have another big bite at the apple when the current budget extension runs out in January. It's likely to be ugly, but the Democrats are in a pretty strong position, given current public opinion polling, and given that, again, they are not in power and the buck does not stop with them. It would appear Donald Trump is already having nightmares, because he is already (and once again) pushing for Senate Republicans to kill the filibuster.

(Incidentally, we would like to run some reader comments on this issue. If you have thoughts about what a Democratic "win" on the budget would look like, please send them to us at comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject line "Blue Win." If you have thoughts about what a Republican "win" on the budget would look like, please send them to us at comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject line "Red Win." Please make sure to include your initials and your city/state (or city/country if you are outside the U.S.)

Meanwhile, if you were asked "Who is the leader of the Trump resistance?", you would have to answer "Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)," right? (Though Gov. J.B. Pritzker, D-IL, has also been no slouch.) Newsom has successfully counter-moved to check efforts by Texas to steal control of the House. He has used both state-level legislation and lawsuits to stymie the Trump administration in many different ways. He has also gotten under Trump's skin with many a mocking social media post. This simply does not align with the assertion that "Democrats refuse to lead."

Of course, most of Rubin's attention is given over to Republicans, and to two different, somewhat conflicting points of view. On one hand, she implies (e.g., #2 and #7) that MAGA voters and politicians are a lost cause as long as Donald Trump is in the White House (or as long as he's alive). At the same time, she asserts (e.g., #4 and #10) that the elections are a battle for hearts and minds, and that those hearts and minds can be won over, even by unorthodox candidates (#5). Winning over the true MAGAts is probably impossible, but winning over independents is potentially doable.

There are clearly people who voted for Trump and who have now become alienated from him, for one reason or another. There are also clearly people who voted for Trump, but NOT for the Republican Party. Trump, as you may have heard, will not be on the ballot in 2026, 2028 or in any other year. Technically, he could run for Congress in 2028 in House district FL-22 (PVI of D+4), challenging Rep. Lois Frankel (D-FL), but that is kind of small ball for him. It seems to us that Rubin is much more on the right track with "public sentiment can be won over" than she is with "MAGA voters and politicians are a lost cause." The issues that cross party lines are largely kitchen-table issues, and Democrats certainly seem to have embraced that notion in the last 3-4 months, or so.

In short, we think there are some useful lessons here, some of them unpleasant. But one has to look with a very critical eye (you might even say a contrarian eye) to separate the wheat from the chaff. (V & Z)