Dem 47
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GOP 53
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Mayor Pete --> Secretary Pete --> Senator Pete (?)

The dual retirements of Michigander Sen. Gary Peters (D) and Michigoose Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), his voluntarily and hers due to term limits, have set off a game of musical chairs in the Wolverine State. Political junkies will be treated to the spectacle of two top-level open-seat races in 2026 in a key swing state packed with ambitious and capable Democrats but not so packed with ambitious and capable Republicans. All eyes are on Pete Buttigieg, a new arrival who moved to Traverse City, MI, because that is where his husband is from. For a guy whose only elected office was mayor of South Bend, IN (pop. 103,000), Buttigieg has become a heavyweight. His 2020 presidential run was impressive enough that Joe Biden picked him for secretary of transportation. He did the job well, responding to transportation disasters the way he should have. He also loudly hit back on Donald Trump blaming the plane crash in D.C. last week on DEI before any facts were even known.

Buttigieg clearly wants to be the first gay president—well, at least the first one who was open about it. Historians have been arguing for 180 years about whether James Buchanan and his beloved friend, William Rufus DeVane King, were more than roommates during the 13 years they lived together, but the only two people who know for sure have been dead for over 100 years. Their relationship was well known at the time, enough that Andrew Jackson called them "Miss Nancy" and "Auntie Fancy." Buttigieg believes that there have been secret gay presidents before, but this is complicated because the term "homosexual" wasn't even invented until 1868, and 19th-century views on this matter were rather different from 21st-century views.

In any case, Buttigieg is clearly a rising star in the Democratic Party, and skipping both an open gubernatorial race and an open Senate race would be the end of a promising career. Since he has now definitely ruled out a run for governor, it seems very likely he will declare for the Senate. He wouldn't even be the first gay senator from the Midwest. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) was in an official registered domestic partnership with another woman, Lauren Azar, for 15 years until they split in 2010.

However, Buttigieg may not have the field to himself. Other ambitious Democrats include Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and AG Dana Nessel. Fortunately for Buttigieg, Benson has already announced she is running for governor. That gets her out of the way. Nessel (55) is up for reelection as AG in 2026. She won her 2022 election by almost 9 points, so she could run for reelection as AG and be the heavy favorite. Or she could challenge Benson for governor or Buttigieg (43) for the Senate. If she runs against Buttigieg, the election would be a gay old time, since she is an open lesbian. She is also Jewish (he was baptized a Catholic at birth). When he was a graduate student as a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford, Buttigieg sporadically attended services at an Anglican cathedral. He later married Chasten Glezman in an Episcopal church in 2018. A Jewish lesbian against a fallen gay Catholic running for the Senate in a state that hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate for 30 years would be... something different.

There is a small chance that Buttigieg will skip both races and go directly for president in 2028. If he does, that would make him not a very smart politician, and we think he is. Running for president as a sitting senator would give him a platform, status as a high-ranking elected official, and proof that he can win a key swing state. Running as a former secretary of transportation in what is sure to be a crowded field gives him very little against a dozen or more sitting or former governors and senators. In a hypothetical primary debate, when Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) says: "I can win Arizona with its 11 electoral votes," Buttigieg would be a lot better off being able to reply: "Yes, but I can win Michigan, with its 16 electoral votes."

The Republicans' bench in Michigan is thin. There are currently no Republicans in statewide elected office. One potential candidate is Rep. John James (R-MI), but he might be loath to give up his seat since he ran for the Senate in 2018 and lost to Debbie Stabenow. He ran again for the Senate in 2020 and lost again, this time to Gary Peters. Would he be willing to give up his advantage of being a House incumbent to run again for an office he has twice lost? We'll see. If he doesn't run, the Republicans will probably look for some rich businessman, even if he is out of state. It worked for Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) and Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), so why not? (V)



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