Dem 47
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GOP 53
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Republicans Are Still Fighting with Each Other over the Budget

Republicans plan to use the budget reconciliation process to pass their tax cuts and budget. The first step is passing a budget resolution—but so far they have failed to pull that off. Mike Johnson wants to get that done by this week, but the votes aren't there. In fact they don't even have a date for the markup session, when members of the Budget Committee get together to make the sausage. Of course, it doesn't matter since Elon Musk is the person who controls what the government actually spends, but it looks good to pretend that Congress has some role here. The Republicans' problem isn't the Democrats. They are in the minority and have no power if the Republicans can agree on what they want. The problem is that the Republicans can't. In particular, deficit hawks Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC), both members of the Committee, want drastic cuts in total spending. That invariably means cutting spending on programs that other members do not want cut. So there is an impasse.

You might think that Donald Trump would come to the rescue, telling Congress what he wants cut, and then everyone would fall in line. That's not going to happen. First, Trump doesn't understand the federal budget. Second, Trump doesn't care one whit about the deficit. Third, Trump does not want to touch the big items, like defense, Social Security, and Medicare, with a two-inch pole. Or a ten-foot pole, if he can find one. He's not going to help the Budget Committee out of the impasse. They will have to do it themselves. And so far, they don't seem able to do it.

To cut spending in a serious way, the Republicans will have to cut programs that help Trump's supporters, like Medicaid, food stamps, and farm aid. Or they will have to deprioritize things that Trump thinks are important, like defense and protecting the border. In the past, these conflicts have been averted using smoke and mirrors. The Committee adopts some magic accounting scheme in which cutting taxes counts as more revenue. Another hot issue is whether to compare the deficit produced by the new budget to last year's deficit, or the one that would have been produced had the 2017 tax cuts expired. The trouble is that Roy and Norman have been fooled once with these tricks and may not be easy to fool again.

Another issue already looming large is the 2026 midterm election. Most Republicans know that given the history of midterms, they will probably lose control of the House in 2026. But this insight is leading to a split among Republicans. One faction says that since they have only 2 years to get stuff done, now is the time to barrel ahead, elections be damned. What does it matter if we lose 10 seats or 42 seats (as they did in 2018), if we can get Trump's program through in 2025? However, the front-line Republicans—the ones whose seats are in danger—seem to have a strong preference for avoiding things that would cause their personal unemployment on Jan. 3, 2027, even if those things make their glorious leader happy. Roy really doesn't care if a couple of congressmen in suburban New York lose their seats next year if he can get his budget through this year. (V)



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