Dem
47
GOP
53
Andrew Cuomo served as governor of New York from Jan. 2011 until Aug. 2021, a longer tenure than any of the other state governors at the time. He was a popular governor who got stuff done, including same-sex marriage, codifying the right to abortion, gun control, and a lot of infrastructure stuff (the Second Ave. Subway, the Moynihan Train Hall, the Mario Cuomo Bridge, and the reconstruction of LaGuardia Airport). He was widely praised for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, he also had a habit of sexually harassing women. NY AG Letitia James investigated him and found 11 women he had harassed. Cuomo denied everything. When the heat got too much, he resigned, but was never prosecuted.
With Eric Adams' reelection campaign in tatters, Cuomo is planning to rise from the dead by running for mayor of New York City in November. He certainly won't be alone, but he has been quietly working all the levers to get support from key groups in advance of his announcement, which is expected in 2 weeks so he can get on the June 24 Democratic primary ballot. In New York City, winning the Democratic nomination is pretty much tantamount to winning the general election. However, there is a catch. The (closed) partisan primaries use ranked-choice voting. Cuomo, being one of the best-known candidates, could get the most first-place votes, but still end up losing when the second, third, fourth, and even fifth-place votes are redistributed. For example, if there are two Black candidates who split the first-place votes, if all of their supporters pick the other one for second place, the more popular of the two could end up winning the nomination in the end.
One thing going for Cuomo is that he could run a campaign in which all he did, day and night, was attack Donald Trump rather than the other Democrats in the race. New Yorkers might decide that having someone calling out Trump loudly and visibly every day was what they really wanted, with Cuomo's deputy mayors actually running the city. The city charter allows the mayor to appoint as many deputy mayors as he wants and assign them whatever duties he wants. If Cuomo becomes the leader of the resistance, that could even be a springboard to run for president in 2028. Some Democrats want a tough, fiery, outspoken candidate, and Cuomo could fill the bill.
One of Cuomo's bases as governor was the unions. He was a very pro-union governor. He is now talking to all the major unions in New York City to try to drum up support. Union endorsements can easily translate to boots on the ground for him. Cuomo is also talking to Black groups and Jewish groups, two blocs with which he has always had good relations.
The race will be crowded. Here is a quick summary of the current candidates plus Cuomo. For more details on each one, see this article:
| Name | Job | Ideology | Ethnicity | Banked | Endorsements | Liabilities |
| Eric Adams | Mayor of NYC | Pro-business | Black | $3.1 million | (None) | Under federal indictment |
| Michael Blake | Pastor | Moderate | Black | $90,000 | (None) | Perennial candidate |
| Andrew Cuomo | Fmr. governor | Centrist | Catholic | Mucho (later) | (None now; many later) | The 11 women he harassed |
| Brad Lander | NYC comptroller | Progressive | Jewish | $3.9 million | UAW, Jumaane Williams | Nerdy white guy |
| Zohran Mamdani | Assemblyman | Far left | Muslim | $3.2 million | UAW, DSA | Not well known nepo baby |
| Zellnor Myrie | State senator | Pro real estate | Black | $2.5 million | Rep. Dan Goldman | Unknown |
| Jessica Ramos | State senator | Progressive | Latina | $31,000 | UAW, Teamsters | Fundraising, misogyny |
| Scott Stringer | Fmr. comptroller | Centrist | Jewish | $2.4 million | Rep. Jerry Nadler | #MeToo problem |
It's New York City, so there is something for everyone. We assume Adams won't get many first-place votes, but he might get some second and third place votes. If Cuomo jumps in, he will probably be the favorite for getting the most first-place votes. If all he talks about during his campaign is how he will spend day and night in front of the cameras telling everyone that Donald Trump is a monster who is destroying the country and he will try to rally the opposition to him, he could win. In the final round, it might come down to Cuomo and Lander. Cuomo's pitch could be "I hate Trump more than anyone." Lander's pitch could be "I will run the city well." On the other hand, if the people who vote for the three Black candidates, the Latina, and the Muslim all agree on their second-choice candidate, that person could make the finals.
The Republicans seem to be coalescing around Guardian Angel and radio personality Curtis Sliwa, who has lost mayoral races before—bigly. The only way he could win is if the Democrats foolishly nominate Eric Adams. (V)