Dem
47
GOP
53
On Wednesday, Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN), recently of the 2024 Democratic ticket, advised reporters that he took a long look at the U.S. Senate seat that Tina Smith (DFL-MN) will vacate when her term is up, and decided to stay put. Instead, Walz will strongly consider running for a third term as governor, since Minnesota does not have term limits.
This is not too much of a surprise. First, there's the "devil you know" factor—Walz has been governor for 7 years and knows and likes the job. It's true that he spent 12 years in the House, and so is not a D.C. virgin, but the House is a rather different creature from the Senate. On top of that, if he won the election, he would be 63 at the commencement of his term in the Senate. That would make him a medium fish in a big pond, at best; with rare exceptions, it takes 15-20 years to get real power in the upper chamber. By staying put, he gets to remain as the biggest fish in a medium pond. On top of that, he keeps his powder dry for a potential 2028 presidential run. Yes, it's possible for someone to be elected to the Senate, and then to turn around and shoot for the presidency a couple of years later. However, it does not please voters. On the whole, "three-term governor" sounds better than "two-term governor and barely a U.S. Senator."
Had Walz run, he would have fully occupied the "moderate" lane. Now that he's out, there's room for someone else to run there. The likeliest person to assume that mantle is Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN), who has been representing the D+1 MN-02 for 7 years. She's a skilled campaigner, a good fundraiser, and obviously has some crossover appeal.
The only member of the blue team who has officially jumped into the race is Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. She is a little leftier than Craig (not a lot), and is also a Native American (she is a member of the Ojibwe tribe, and is also known as Gizhiiwewidamookwe—you will need to spell that correctly to get credit on this week's quiz). If elected, she would become the first Native American woman senator in U.S. history.
Flanagan figures to become the progressive candidate, by virtue of her slightly leftier policy preferences, and her potential glass-ceiling-breaking status. She is also a good campaigner and, unlike Craig, has already won statewide. That said, Craig is the first LGBTQ person to represent Minnesota in the House of Representatives, which probably mutes the glass-ceiling angle a bit. Also, the other Democrats who might well mount a senatorial bid—state AG Keith Ellison, Rep. Ilhan Omar, etc.—are mostly lefties, so the progressive vote could be split.
Whatever happens, Walz' decision is probably good news for the Democrats. Generally, it's easier to defend an open Senate seat than an open governorship. If Walz runs again, he'll be a pretty heavy favorite to keep his job. Meanwhile, the blue team can unleash its pretty deep bench in the effort to hold on to Smith's seat. Since the GOP bench in the Gopher State is godawful, the Democrat-Farmer-Laborer who emerges from the primary should be in a pretty good position to win. (Z)