Dem
47
GOP
53
Nahal Toosi, the senior foreign affairs correspondent for Politico, who has decades of experience reporting on foreign affairs, thinks that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will be confirmed as secretary of state by a wide margin with many Democratic votes. All the senators know him well. He is an easygoing, friendly, likable guy (albeit somewhat lazy, which is not a great characteristic for someone taking a job that requires you to be a million miler—every year). However, Toosi writes that while confirmation is no problem, she doesn't think Rubio will last very long in the job.
One thing she notes is that Rex Tillerson, Donald Trump's first secretary of state, didn't last very long, even though he was sorta, kinda, qualified for the job (more so than Rubio, arguably). Tillerson was CEO of Exxon and in that capacity knew many foreign leaders because he had personally negotiated oil deals with them. Lots of experience negotiating with foreign leaders is actually pretty good prep for SoS. Rubio has none of that.
Toosi talked to a dozen foreign policy officials and although most want Rubio to succeed, they give him 2 years, max. Some think 1 year, at most. The problem is three-fold. First, there is already pushback from Trump's MAGA base. Rubio is reasonably knowledgeable as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Intelligence Committee, not insane, and well behaved. These are not characteristics the base admires. When Trump orders Rubio to go buy Greenland, he knows that is a fool's errand and is not going to do it.
Second, the duties of a number of other officials also touch on foreign affairs, including the secretary of defense, the national security adviser, the director of national intelligence, and others. If there are crazy people in those jobs, they are going to try to thwart him at every turn. Even if Rubio takes a lot of abuse and tries to do his best, in the end, Trump will side with the crazy people. When the abuse starts, Rubio can push back, but the MAGA crew will humiliate him. If he sucks it up and grits his teeth, Trump might be fooled until someone who wants Rubio's job whispers sweet nothings (and we really mean "nothings" here), in Trump's ear, and then Rubio will be thrown away like a used tissue.
Third, Rubio is a defense hawk. He doesn't like dictators and doesn't want to cozy up to them. He wants to confront them. He is not an isolationist. He broadly supports Ukraine (although he wants the war there to end). He definitely supports NATO. Nevertheless, he also doesn't want to provoke the bear so much that it results in World War III. Rubio also supports human rights around the world. Trump likes dictators, doesn't support Ukraine or NATO, and doesn't give a rat's rear end about human rights. Rubio is also passionate about Latin America. Trump's only interest in that region is seizing the Panama Canal. They disagree on many other policy issues as well.
In addition to having to outmaneuver the officials with foreign affairs in their portfolios, like the SecDef, NSA, and DNI, Rubio will have to watch out for a herd of special envoys Trump is appointing. For one, there is Richard Grenell, much loved by the MAGA militia, who wanted to be SoS and instead got the ill-defined job of "presidential envoy for special missions." He will see his mission as trying to undermine Rubio so he can take his job. The new State Dept. spokesperson is Tammy Bruce, who has trashed "Little Marco" repeatedly in the past. You think she will help him? Rubio is not a consummate infighter and backstabber, and without those skills, it could be a rough (and short) ride. (V)