Dem
47
GOP
53
Negotiators in Qatar have said that Israel and Hamas have reached a deal in which the fighting will stop for 42 days. During that time, Hamas will release some hostages and Israel will release some Palestinian prisoners. More aid will be allowed into Gaza. All of this is good news for the people of Gaza. What we don't know yet is the effect of the cease fire on U.S. politics. Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have already claimed credit for the breakthrough. Both of them are justified in doing so; Biden because his team conducted the negotiations, and Trump because his chest-thumping and mercurial nature undoubtedly had both sides thinking "Hmmm, maybe we better go with the devil we know, while there's still a little time."
The hard part may come next and that will be on Trump's plate: What is the future of the region? Will there be a Palestinian state? What will it consist of? Who will run it? Trump is terrible at actual diplomacy, but Marco Rubio is generally regarded as an honest broker. If he can put together a lasting peace, Trump will get a lot of credit. That said, countries have been trying to put together something that is acceptable to all parties in the region since at least the Balfour Declaration of Nov. 2, 1917. That's over 100 years ago. It turns out not to be easy.
One factor that might be different this time is that the three strongest players in the area—Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—can probably all agree on some future, at least on paper. Meanwhile, the one country sure to oppose anything they do, Iran, is weaker than it has ever been. Further, Iran's main sponsor, Russia, is tied down in an endless war in Ukraine and may not be in much of a position to stop a U.S.-Israeli-Egyptian-Saudi-Palestinian plan, if one can be cobbled together. We believe that Rubio will genuinely do his best to pull it off, but again, folks have been working on this for over 100 years with little to show for it. It won't be easy. (V)