Dem
47
GOP
53
As far as we know, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) hasn't actually resigned his seat, as yet. It's inevitable, though, as soon as the Senate formally confirms him to be the next secretary of state. This being the case, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) yesterday announced his pick to succeed Rubio: Florida AG Ashley Moody (R).
This pick was both expected, and safe. Moody knows how to win statewide, and she's a hardliner on the GOP issues du jour, including immigration and anti-trans rights. Further, creating a vacancy in the state AG's office means that DeSantis now has yet another ripe, juicy plum to hand out. We noted yesterday morning that the likely replacement would be DeSantis' chief of staff, James Uthmeier (R). Yesterday afternoon, DeSantis announced that he would indeed choose Uthmeier.
The Moody appointment ends the jockeying for position... for now. However, while incumbent senators elected in their own right have a roughly 90% success rate in reelection campaigns, the success rate for appointed senators is more like 50%. That means that any Florida politician who might like a nice promotion knows that the time to strike is 2026, when there will be a special election for the balance of Rubio's term (which runs to 2028). Already, Reps. Kat Cammack and Cory Mills, along with state Sen. Jay Collins (all R-FL), have indicated they will likely mount bids, and there will likely be other contenders, as well.
Making things more complicated, and more interesting, is that DeSantis will be term-limited in 2026, so his job will also be up for grabs. There's going to be a fair bit of dancing about, as ambitious Florida Republicans decide if they like their gubernatorial odds, or their senatorial odds, better. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) has already said he's getting into the governor's race, and Miami mayor and former "presidential candidate" Francis Suarez is expected to jump in, too. As with the Senate seat, there will be other contenders, as well.
Do the potential bloodbaths on the Republican side of those two contests mean that there might be an opening for a Democrat to win one, or both, elections? Maybe, if there's a blue wave driven by anti-Trump backlash, although the Sunshine State is pretty red these days, and the Democratic bench there is not very deep. Regardless of what happens on the state level, however, there is still likely to be a federal impact that works to the benefit of the blue team. Running for the Senate or for governor is a full-time job, and so the various representatives who are considering a bid will likely resign their seats in the House, eventually. By terms of Florida law, they actually have to resign once they qualify as candidates, though some of them will probably resign prior to that. So, even once Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) conference is back at full strength in a few months, he can anticipate a future where his margins are once again reduced to razor-thin status.
There's also some news about the other U.S. Senate seat that is up in the air right now, the one that J.D. Vance is leaving behind in order to become vice president. Gov. Mike DeWine's (R-OH) preferred pick is Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R-OH), but Husted really wants to be Gov. Husted, not Sen. Husted. You know, better to be the biggest fish in a medium pond than a medium fish in the biggest pond. This being the case, DeWine is reportedly taking a long look at... Vivek Ramaswamy.
If DeWine were to tap the utterly inexperienced venture capitalist, he'd be doing Donald Trump a big favor, although not in the way you think. Trump is reportedly sick of Ramaswamy, the way he's sick of Elon Musk, and would be grateful to be rid of his co-DOGEy without having to go through a messy divorce. The downside for DeWine, and for the GOP, is that if anyone could lose the special election that would be held in 2026, it's Ramaswamy (especially against Sherrod Brown). The downside for everyone else is that being a senator would give Ramaswamy a platform, and so would mean everyone would get to listen to his finger-wagging and his blather, on a regular basis, for the next 2 years.
DeWine will have to make his pick soon, so we won't have to wait long to see if he goes with a real DOGE of a candidate. (Z)