Dem
47
GOP
53
The line that sold Republicans on the 2017 tax cuts was: "The cuts pay for themselves." Now there is abundant evidence that such is not the case. Instead, the national deficit went from $20 trillion to $36 trillion and is growing faster than the economy. Donald Trump may not know this, but some of the deficit hawks in the House know it and don't like it. They are unlikely to be fooled again. Not even with fuzzy math.
A number of deficit hawks, led by Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), have said they want the new tax law to be revenue neutral and not add to the deficit. Given that it will take only one Republican House member to kill any bill until the three (soon-to-be) vacant seats are filled in April, the hawks have to be placated—and not by magical "dynamic scoring" that assumes tax cuts will stimulate so much growth that revenues will increase. They know it didn't happen last time and are not going to fall for it again. They are going to demand actual cuts in spending, which will pit Republican against Republican in deciding where the cuts should be.
One of the reasons it will be harder to claim that tax cuts will bring in more revenue is that the 2017 corporate tax cuts were the ones that stimulated the economy the most, and they aren't the ones expiring. Dynamic scoring doesn't work for individuals. Giving Elon Musk another $100 billion isn't going to cause economic growth. If he sees a new business opportunity, he can invest in it with his current money. He isn't refraining from making an investment because he lacks the funds. If he is refraining from investing, it is because he doesn't see a good investment out there and a tax cut won't change that.
Some Republicans see the problem and are working the refs. They are calling the Congressional Budget Office names and saying you can't trust any number they produce.
Another problem is that Donald Trump wants immigration and taxes in one bill. Then the combined effect will have to be scored. Deporting a million people will reduce the workforce, as most of those people are employed. The companies they work for will have to shrink due to fewer workers. They will then be less profitable and thus will pay less in taxes. Lower tax revenues without cutting spending means a bigger deficit. If immigration and tax cuts are rolled into one big package, the CBO has to consider the effect of the whole package. If there is a tax bill first, then no one has to take into account a future immigration bill and the financial picture will look rosier. But Trump is adamantly against first a tax bill then an immigration bill because it will tell his supporters what he really cares about is lower taxes, not deporting immigrants. He absolutely does not want to send that message to them. (V)