Dem
47
GOP
53
In order to pass a budget without the Democrats filibustering it to death, Republicans will have to use the budget reconciliation process. This is a complicated, multistep process that requires considerable expertise and also a detailed knowledge of what the Senate parliamentarian will accept, since non-budget items are not allowed in reconciliation bills. The person who will run the process is the chairman of the House Budget Committee, Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX).
At the beginning of his speakership, Kevin McCarthy told his colleagues that he had "no confidence" in Arrington. He reiterated that throughout his short speakership. One senior House staff member told NOTUS, off the record: "He is all over the place and doesn't understand what the fu** he's doing." Others have noted that Arrington's special combination of ignorance and arrogance could lead to disaster. In a way, he is the House's answer to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Hmmm, two arrogant, obnoxious Texans. Odd.
One of the pressing issues is whether raising the debt ceiling—and if so, by how much—should be in the reconciliation bill. This is complicated material and affects how much taxes can be cut and how much spending has to be cut. Some members say that Arrington tells different stories to different people. He does tell everyone that he wants dramatic budget cuts, though.
Among the things he wants are huge cuts to Medicaid ($2.3 trillion), Medicare ($479 billion), the ACA ($151 billion) and climate change mitigation ($468 billion). Many of the cuts are not only unpopular, but are in areas where Arrington's committee does not have jurisdiction. The members whose committees do have jurisdiction over those areas don't enjoy being told what they have to do, especially by a member they see as ignorant and arrogant.
One member described Arrington's wish list like the "list a kid would send to Santa when he was 5. I want a pony. I want an airplane. I want a truck." They understand both the difficulty of getting virtually the entire Republican conference behind them and the public reaction when people begin to understand what the cuts mean for them. When they told Arrington this, he proposed raising the corporate income tax, something Trump abhors. When people told the Representative this was a complete nonstarter, he claimed that a staffer put it on his PowerPoint sheet by mistake. A number of members have said he has no idea of what could realistically get through the House, let alone the Senate. It may not be a smooth ride. (V)