Dem 47
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GOP 53
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Trump's Deportation Plan is ALREADY Working

Donald Trump campaigned on deporting millions of undocumented immigrants. He probably can't distinguish between "millions" and "big number," but Chief-of-Staff Susie Wiles knows very well that is impossible. Congress would have to appropriate hundreds of billions of dollars, camps would have to be built, there would be dozens of lawsuits, and so on. It would take many years and catch many U.S. citizens in the dragnet, causing the courts to interfere.

In short, Trump doesn't do details. What he is very good at, on the other hand, is instilling fear in people. What he wants—and it is starting to happen already—is for tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, or more, of undocumented immigrants to feel real fear and self-deport. That is especially true if they have U.S.-born children and are scared they will be put on a bus headed to Mexico and their kids will be taken from them and put up for adoption. Also, people know that if they self-deport, they can go at a time of their own choosing to a place of their own choosing. If Trump can convince them that he is coming for them and they can't hide (even if that is not true), it makes sense for them to get while the getting is good, and on their own terms.

This could be the genius behind Trump's bluster: Convince people that they are about to be deported so they leave on their own terms, but leave. That is much simpler and cheaper than finding them, shipping them off to holding pens, and then deporting them. It might work.

Of course, merely saying he will round up undocumented immigrants will go only so far. There has to be some action (i.e., photo ops) to back that up to really scare the daylights out of people. The action may start as early as tomorrow. "Border czar" Tom Homan said: "There's gonna be a big raid all across the country." There is no reason to think he is bluffing. The original plan was to start in Chicago tomorrow, but after that bit of information leaked out, he said he was reconsidering his plans.

One thing that XOs can do is instruct federal agencies what to prioritize. It is expected that one of Trump's first XOs will be to reverse a Biden XO instructing ICE to prioritize deporting criminals and recent arrivals. The new XO will authorize (maybe even encourage) ICE to deport any undocumented immigrant the officers can find. And it may instruct them to go look in places known to harbor many of them, especially certain worksites. Raids on workplaces and arrests of dozens or hundreds of people may well put the fear of God (or fear of Trump, which to him is kind of the same thing) in many other undocumented immigrants and make them think seriously about self-deporting on their own terms. (V)



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