Jan.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Day 2: The Executive Orders

Executive Orders are Donald Trump's ideal mode of governance. He can point to some person (or, perhaps, some computer—keep reading), have something written up, sign it, and declare victory. It takes virtually no time or energy on his part, and doesn't involve dealing with the pesky members of Congress. What's not to like?

This being the case, most of the big political news yesterday involved XOs, in one way or another. Here's a rundown:

1. AI: Yesterday Trump, joined by SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison, hosted a big "unveiling" of a plan, by those companies and others, to invest $500 billion in infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Trump said that this will create 100,000 jobs.
   
   With things like this, particularly when they are announced 48 hours into a presidential term, it's fair to wonder exactly how much the president had to do with the news. Certainly the three executives were effusive in giving Trump credit. Son, for example, declared: "We wouldn't have decided to do this unless you won." Maybe he's speaking truth. On the other hand, the first computer center (of 20 that will be built) commenced construction early last year. Oh, and there have already been numerous announcements of big-time investments in AI from these three firms. So, it sure looks like three Trump supporters, fellows who would also very much like to curry favor with his administration, just might be giving him an overgenerous amount of credit.
   
   What does this have to do with executive orders? Well, there are two connections. One of the many Joe Biden XOs that Trump struck down was one that required developers of AI systems that pose risks to U.S. national security, the economy, public health or safety to conduct safety tests and share the results with the U.S. government. Biden issued this order, which is sort of a preemptive-TikTok thing, under authority granted by the Defense Production Act. Trump, obviously, wants firms who are working on AI to be able to do anything they want, and now they can. Expect Skynet to come online in August 2027 or so.
   
   When it comes to AI, the Trump administration apparently does practice what it preaches, however. And that brings us to the second connection. With an additional 24 hours to examine the flurry of Trump XOs, the evidence is pretty clear that... substantial portions of them were written by AI. The problem here is that things like commas, indents, dashes, word choices, etc. matter an awful lot when it comes to figuring out what instructions are being given to the federal agencies. With these sorts of details, however, AI isn't great. So, it could be an adventure as federal employees try to parse the XOs. Maybe they can ask AI for help.
   
   
2. Israel: One of the things that escaped nearly everyone's attention on Day 1, including ours, is that Trump got rid of Biden's executive order 14115, which was issued in February 2024, and was entitled "Imposing Certain Sanctions on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability in the West Bank." What the Biden XO did was impose sanctions on Israel in response to violence committed by Israeli settlers against civilians in the West Bank. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu very much wanted that XO struck down, and now it has been. This may not make much of a difference, since other nations followed suit after Biden acted, and those other nations' sanctions are still in place. Still, it's another reminder that it is not now, and never was, credible that Trump is more a friend to the Palestinian people than Biden was.
   
   
3. Insecurity: One of the new XOs that Trump issued yesterday ends Secret Service protection for a number of former national security officials, most obviously John Bolton. Here is Trump's explanation, in response to a question from a reporter:

   I think there was enough time. We take a job, you take a job, you want to do a job, we're not going to have security on people for the rest of their lives. Why should we?

   We assume: (1) that is English, and (2) that Trump is trying to say something like "we can't protect people forever." But we can't swear to it, on either count.
   
   The reason that Bolton and the others were being protected is that their lives have been credibly threatened by the nation of Iran. There is no reason to believe that Iran has moved on, and is no longer interested in avenging themselves upon Bolton and the other no-longer-protectees. However, Bolton, and several of the others, have been critical of Trump. And that is determinative here.
   
   
4. DEI: On Monday, Trump brought an end to all federal DEI programs. On Tuesday, he issued an XO instructing that any federal employee responsible for overseeing DEI efforts be placed on paid leave. Obviously, the administration is trying to determine the best way to terminate these folks' employment. Undoubtedly, this is not happy news for individuals who are about to lose their jobs. That said, since roughly November 5 of last year, they have surely been making sure to get their résumés up-to-date.
   
   
5. Tariffs: The Day 1 tariffs that Trump promised (threatened?) did not happen on Day 1. They also did not happen on Day 2. However, the President did say yesterday that he's planning to slap a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. In a little over a week, we'll see if he means it, or if this is just bluster/a negotiating tactic. That said, probably best to stock up on maple syrup and ponchos right now, just in case.

Will today bring even more XOs? Perhaps so, though we'll pretty soon reach the point that everything that can be done via XO will have been done. Then it will be time to actually govern. Or play golf, one of those two. (Z)