Donald Trump has made noises about seizing the Panama Canal recently. TASS, the Russian state media outlet, which is controlled by Vladimir Putin, responded by warning Trump not to do it. A translation of the key sentence is: "We expect that during the expected discussions between the leadership of Panama and U.S. President Donald Trump on issues of control over the Panama Canal, which certainly falls within the sphere of their bilateral relations, the parties will respect the current international legal regime of this key waterway."
Due to geography, Russia does not use the canal much, but clearly is concerned about a new round of American imperialism. In contrast, Chinese products destined for the U.S. East Coast do go through the canal and Putin may be thinking out loud for his sometime buddy, Chinese President Xi Jinping. If Trump tried to seize the canal using military force, that could have a negative effect on Trump's relationship with Putin, not to mention Xi.
In other Russia-related news, maybe the brotherly love between Putin and Trump is not so strong as it was during Trump v1.0. First Putin tells Trump not to do something he said he was going to do. Then Trump struck back at Putin by threatening Russia with tariffs if Putin doesn't end the Ukraine war. Remember, Trump campaigned on ending the war quickly, but never said how he was going to do it. Many people assumed he would do this by telling Volodymyr Zelenskyy to surrender and give Putin whatever he wanted. This threat to his former buddy Putin is new. Here is the whole "Truth" if you are interested, but suffice it to say that it is not friendly and quite threatening. Where did this come from all of a sudden?
If Putin ends the war by going back to the status quo ante, he is going to have a big problem at home. Tens of thousands of young Russian men have been killed, hundreds of thousands have been injured, and untold numbers have fled the country. The economy is in bad shape. All for nothing? How is he going to explain this to the Russian people? Also, the threat of tariffs is not much of a threat at all, because Russia doesn't export anything to the U.S. anymore. Vodka? It is just diluted ethyl alcohol with a bit of flavoring. Lots of American companies make it.
Putin is never going to just give up now because Trump says he should. This could anger Trump and who knows what an unpredictable Trump might do. Change sides and order Zelenskyy to give up? The Ukrainian won't do that as long as Europe supplies him with weapons. If the war drags on for months, the Democrats could have a field day with Trump's promises, like building a wall and getting Mexico to pay for it and, now, not ending the war in Ukraine on Day 1. Trump's promise reminds us of Richard Nixon's campaign promise to end the war in Vietnam by some unspecified means. He ultimately did end the war—by losing it. (V)