Dem
47
GOP
53
Not long after we went live yesterday, Colombian president Gustavo Petro backed down, and allowed the Trump administration to dump 200 or so undocumented immigrants in Colombia. So total was Petro's capitulation that he reportedly even offered the use of his private plane to help with the relocations.
So, Trump won the battle (just as he did with Guatemala, and with Mexico). That said—and do keep in mind that diplomatic maneuvering is not a strong suit for us, so take our assessment with a grain of salt or two—we think there's a pretty clear message here. Something along the lines of: Colombia/Guatemala/Mexico will tolerate some number of relocations, but there's an upper limit, and that upper limit is far closer to 200 than it is to "millions." Put another way, the intransigence from Petro and from Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum was something of a shot across the bow, making clear that those nations will not simply yield to whatever plans Trump comes up with.
Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), who we presume knows this area better than we do, is in agreement. He sat for an interview on Monday and opined that, one of these days, Trump is going to use tariffs as a cudgel, and some nation is going to call his bluff.
There is also another dynamic at play here. If Trump plays hardball a little too hard, particularly with non-European nations, well, China is waiting with open arms. Actually, this has already come up, sort of. Thanks to the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and other Western nations slapped Russia with a bunch of tariffs and other economic sanctions. Russia, of course, responded by recalibrating and shifting most of its trade to China and India. Over the weekend, Trump threatened tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine War is not brought to an end. Vladimir Putin shrugged, since Russia does virtually no trade with the U.S. anymore, anyhow.
There's one other little bit of information worth noting. Under the radar, the White House has been working on an agreement with El Salvador to accept some sizable number of relocations, even if the people are not Salvadoran. Undoubtedly, the government of that nation is being promised some sort of goodies in exchange for their cooperation.
If the administration is working on such arrangements, it seems to us to be pretty clear evidence that the White House knows it won't be able to force some nations to accept relocated people. Of course, El Salvador only has a population of 6 million people, so there's an upper limit to how much can be done with that particular "safety valve." (Z)