Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who is 66 years old and is serving his second term in the upper chamber, has decided that he's had his fill of life as a politician. And so, he announced yesterday that he will not stand for reelection in 2026.
Undoubtedly, this news will not make the DSCC happy, since they need to hold every seat in the midterms, and incumbents have much better odds than non-incumbents. That said, there's never a good time for an incumbent to call it a career, particularly in a purple state like Michigan. And if Peters is going to exit anyhow, then doing it during an election that could very plausibly be a blue wave is as good a bad time as any.
The Democratic bench in Michigan is very deep, and so the Party should not have trouble coming up with a good candidate. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Rep. Debbie Dingell (both D-MI) have both announced already that they are out. However, Pete Buttigieg and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-MI) are both interested; either would generate a lot of enthusiasm from the base. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) might jump in, too, though she would certainly not be the DSCC's preferred pick. Undoubtedly, Tlaib would do very well in Dearborn, but she's a bit too lefty for Michigan as a whole.
As to the Republican bench, it is less deep. There are numerous high-profile candidates, but they all have serious potential weaknesses. Rep. John James (R-MI) might be the GOP's best candidate, but he's already lost two Senate races, and maybe Michiganders aren't buying what he's selling. Tudor Dixon is likely to jump in, but she's kinda whackadoodle (think Kari Lake), and she got trounced in the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election by 11 points. Ronna Romney McDaniel is a native, and she certainly has name recognition, though she hasn't actually expressed interest yet, and she might simultaneously be too MAGA for the Never Trump crowd, and yet not Trumpy enough for the MAGA crowd. There is also some support for Tony Dungy, who is Black, conservative, known for his career in the NFL, endowed with several skeletons in his closet, and not actually a resident of Michigan anymore (and hasn't been in a long time). Perhaps this profile sounds familiar (Hint: Erschelhay Alkerway).
This seat will undoubtedly be near the top of all the "most competitive Senate seat" lists for 2026. And while that's not wrong, per se, it's mostly a reflection of the fact that not many seats up next year are plausibly competitive. If you consider: (1) that the Democratic bench in Michigan is stronger, (2) midterm elections generally produce adverse results for the party in the White House, and (3) that Michigan, while purple, hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1994, then you have to rate the Democrats to be solid favorites, even sans their incumbent senator. (Z)