If there were any doubts that the United States Senate is currently a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Organization,
those doubts were dispelled yesterday, as Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) & Co.
delivered
the budget bill the President wanted, and on the timeline he demanded.
There are a lot of moving pieces here, so we're going to do what we often do in these situations and run down the
ten storylines that seem most important to us:
51-50: Officially speaking, the vote was very close, with J.D. Vance's tiebreaker
needed to get the legislation over the hump. All the Democrats and independents voted against it, as did Sens.
Susan Collins (R-ME), Rand Paul (R-KY) and Thom Tillis (R-NC). Magically, Collins once again managed to "rebel"
against her party without actually casting a decisive vote. Funny how it often works out like that.
Megabill: The Senate took the House's version of the budget bill and added and
subtracted, subtracted and added, added and subtracted. When all was said and done, the Senate bill checked in
at around 1,000 pages,
which is actually a bit longer than the House bill. If you're a glutton for punishment, you can read through it
at that link. Should you actually read through to the end, you'll do something that no member of the Senate has
done, that's for sure.
What's In It?: There are undoubtedly things squirreled away in the bill that won't
be discovered for days or weeks. But the big things that made it into the bill, things that have been on the table
for days or weeks, are: Tax cuts for wealthy people, tougher Medicaid requirements, cuts to green energy subsidies
and electric vehicle credits, reductions in SNAP funding, changes that make it harder to discharge student loans,
a $5 trillion increase in the debt limit, and tax credits for donations to "school choice" scholarships.
The exact amount of money involved for most of these things is not clear yet, because the CBO hasn't had time to
score the final version of the Senate bill. However, there is little question that the final bill will dramatically
increase the deficit.
What's Not?: Here are some of the major things that ended up on the cutting-room floor:
the plan to sell vast swathes of public land in the West, a tax on wind/solar installations that use Chinese parts,
and a provision that forbade states from regulating AI. In other words, the 100 senators did not cut nearly
as much stuff from the bill as the one Senate Parliamentarian did.
Murkowski: This was undoubtedly not how she planned it, but Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
was a major part of the story yesterday. To fully understand what happened, it's actually necessary to go back in time
about 7 years. Remember the famous John McCain "thumbs down" that saved Obamacare? Well, McCain's thumb wouldn't have
mattered, except that Murkowski was also a "no." Then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) offered to exempt Alaska
from the killing of the ACA, and Murkowski rejected the deal, out of a sense of fairness.
Over the past couple of days, the same basic sequence played out. Thune needed one vote from among Murkowski, Collins,
Tillis and Paul. Paul opposes everything, and Tillis is now a short-timer, so they were pretty much lost causes. Collins
is unpopular and already facing a tough reelection bid in less than 18 months. So, the Alaskan was the easiest target.
Thune offered the same basic deal as 8 years ago, saying he would exempt Alaska from cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and this
time... Murkowski took the deal. The Parliamentarian struck down the Medicaid part of that, but it was semi-replaced
with $50 billion in new funding for certain types of rural hospitals, the types that just so happen to be common in
Alaska. Afterwards, Murkowski cried crocodile tears, and
whined about
how very difficult her "yea" vote had been. But, she said, it's a process, and time was tight, and she did the best she could,
and she makes no apologies for prioritizing the needs of Alaskans.
It is absolutely the Senator's prerogative to vote as she sees fit. And it's absolutely her prerogative to concern
herself only with the needs of Alaskans. However, don't buy any of her performative nonsense. She was the decisive vote,
and the others (except MAYBE Collins) weren't gettable. If Murkowski wanted more time to negotiate, she could have had
it. If she wanted to save Medicaid for everyone, and not just Alaskans, she could have made that her line in the sand.
She does not get to disclaim responsibility for her choices just because she says she has the sads about voting for the
bill.
After Murkowski cast her vote, Paul slammed her, saying that she accepted a bailout for Alaska and threw the rest of the
country under the bus. As Murkowski left the Senate chamber, NBC News' Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent Ryan Nobles
asked her about Paul's remark, and she was furious, staring Nobles down for about 10 seconds. You can see it if
you watch the first 15 seconds of
this clip:
She eventually stammered out an answer that began: "My response is, I have an obligation to the people of the state of
Alaska, and I live up to that every single day." She also admitted that she does not like the final bill. And later in
the day, she added: "We do not have a perfect bill by any stretch of the imagination. My hope is that the House is going to
look at this and recognize that we're not there yet."
Presumably, the Senator thinks she's done her damage control, but not so much. Her hope that the House will somehow
"fix" what's wrong here is either dishonest or naive (probably the former). The House, as we've seen time and again,
is far and away the more conservative and reactionary chamber. The House, in fact, is the chamber that took a chainsaw
to Medicaid in the first place. There's a good chance the House passes the exact budget the Senate passed. There is
zero chance the House passes a budget more friendly to Medicaid than the one the Senate just passed.
In the House: Speaking of the House, the Freedom Caucusers are characteristically unhappy,
and say
they cannot vote for the Senate bill. Every time they make such grandiose claims, they eventually fold like a cheap
suit. So, we simply will not believe they are going to hold out until they actually do so. The House begins discussions
at 9:00 a.m. ET today, so we may have clarity soon.
July 4: The deadline that Donald Trump has set for the legislation to reach his desk is
July 4—Friday. The stated reason for this is that he wants the pageantry of Independence Day as a backdrop. People
can celebrate their independence from having health care, perhaps.
We seriously doubt pageantry is his real reason (or, at least, that it's the real reason of whoever is serving as his
legislative strategist). Deadlines serve as a useful way to force rapid compliance from spineless members of Congress,
before they can actually read what they are voting for, or can get feedback from all those annoying constituents.
Further, Trump has regularly shown himself to be an enthusiastic practitioner of the Nixonian practice of muting bad
coverage by making news over the weekend. Tricky Dick preferred Saturday nights, while Slippery Donald likes Friday
afternoons and evenings, such as... this Friday afternoon/evening. That it's also a holiday weekend is a bonus.
MuskWatch: Elon Musk is angry about the bill, and is feuding with Donald Trump again.
On Monday, the South African posted
this
to eX-Twitter:
Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt
increase in history should hang their head in shame!
And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.
He's since posted a bunch of other tweets along the same lines, and has also threatened to
start a third party.
As with the Freedom Caucusers, we'll believe it when we see it. Musk, like Trump, is a hothead and a walking id.
Musk, like Trump, has the attention span of a fruit fly. Musk, like Trump, is mercurial, and says one thing today,
and the opposite tomorrow. If Musk still has a belly full of steam at this time next year, then maybe he'll act
on that. But we wouldn't bet on it. Remember, we're just a few weeks removed from him saying that he was done
spending money on politics.
The 2026 Elections: The Democrats can't do much to change the big, beautiful budget bill,
except maybe bring things to the attention of the Senate Parliamentarian. But they CAN start getting their ducks in a
row, in preparation for making Republicans in the House and the Senate own their votes for the bill. The DCCC has already sent
a memo
to "Interested Parties" that concludes:
Polling consistently shows that the more the public hears about the GOP Tax Scam, the less popular it becomes. To their
own detriment, Republicans have been openly touting the very worst of the bill for the past six months. What has it
resulted in? The most unpopular piece of legislation in modern American history. From now until November 2026, the DCCC
will continue to communicate the harm this bill will cause, uplift stories of the everyday Americans negatively impacted,
and mobilize voters through traditional and non-traditional organizing tactics, earned media, and paid communications in
order to hold vulnerable Republicans accountable for abandoning their central promise to voters. Republicans will lose
the majority in 2026 and the Big, Ugly Bill will be the reason why. (Emphasis theirs.)
Yesterday, we
ran down
the polling, which is indeed grim for the GOP. Barring some major new development, like Trump dropping a nuclear
bomb on Iran, Democratic leadership would be committing political malpractice if they didn't make this
bill the centerpiece of their argument in 2026.
The 2028 Elections: The Democrats are also thinking about the 2028 elections. Specifically,
J.D. Vance was the deciding vote in the Senate. And J.D. Vance is the most likely Republican presidential candidate in
2028. So, the blue team is already
working
to make Vance, even more than Trump, the face of the big, beautiful bill.
And there you have it, as of Tuesday night. Now, it's Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) problem. (Z)
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