Dem
47
GOP
53
Months ago, when Donald Trump ordered House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to get his giant bill done by July 4th, that date was a vague abstraction. Now, it is tomorrow. It is not a done deal yet, but it looks like Trump is going to get his wish.
The Freedom Caucus expended much oxygen complaining about the Senate version of the bill. And yesterday morning, once the actual Senate bill was in hand, the FCers released a three-page critique of the bill. Here are some of the criticisms:
The last item is a compilation of another half dozen complaints. If you want a detailed explanation of each bullet point, see the link above.
Of course, what the FC has ignored is the fact that each of the provisions they don't like was inserted (or not inserted) to placate one or more senators whose vote was needed. Such is the nature of sausage-making. If the FC had made the sausage all by itself, the bill would have been different, but that is not the way of the Senate. Or of politics, for that matter.
The BIG question now is: Is this all bark and no bite (as usual)? It certainly looks like the answer is "yes." The FCers, and some other members, expended even more oxygen yesterday complaining about the bill. But then, Trump twisted some arms, and Johnson held some closed-door meetings with the holdouts. Late Wednesday night, the House voted 219-213 to advance the bill to the floor, for a final vote. The only person, on either side of the aisle, to cross party lines was Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). He is the most centrist member of the Republican conference, and he also represents the wealthiest district in the state, the D+1 PA-01. So, one imagines his "no" vote was about SALTy matters.
When a member votes to bring a bill to the floor for a vote, they don't always vote for the actual bill. However, they usually do. Further, both Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said last night they believe they have the votes they need. So, the odds are very good the Senate bill will pass the House today, and will get Trump's signature on July 4, as planned. Remember: FCACO.
Exactly how the Freedom Caucusers' votes were secured is a very interesting question. At least five of them were loudly proclaiming themselves as "no" votes as late as yesterday afternoon. Maybe all it took was a few threats from Trump. Or, maybe Johnson offered them some sort of goodies.
Those goodies, if they exist, are not in this bill, because the bill can't be altered without going to a conference committee, and there isn't time for that before the July 4 deadline. And those goodies probably won't be in a future bill, because reconciliation isn't available, and anything the FC wants can't get past the Senate filibuster. That probably means that if anything was offered, it was some sort of action Trump promised to take in the FCers' home states. If any deal made is not related to legislation, then the people involved don't have to reveal what horses were traded, and they might never do so. But if Trump announces next week that, say, all mosques in Texas must be closed down, under his authority granted by the Alien and Sedition Acts, you can make a pretty good guess as to where that came from.
It is also possible that the deal was Trump not doing something he could have done to punish recalcitrant members. NO member is going to brag: "That big military base in my district that employs 10,000 people isn't going to be closed after all because I gave Trump what he wanted." (V & Z)