Jul.03

electoral-vote.com

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GOP 53

Senate Retirement Watch

Thom Tillis' retirement has focused attention on a bunch of Senate races where the incumbent has already announced a retirement or may yet, plus a few where the voters might make the retirement decision. Here are the seven senators who have announced they are out at the end of next year.

These not-so-magnificent seven are already out, but there could be a few more. There has been an average of five open Senate seats in all elections since 1930. We are already above that, but there is plenty of time for more members to join the list.

Many eyes are on Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who shot herself in the foot at a town hall. When a constituent said that the MAGAbill (which Ernst voted for) would cause Iowans to die, Ernst said: "Well, we all are going to die." That didn't go over so well, and after the bill actually passes and some Iowans lose their health care, the Democrats are going to make hay of it (pigs will eat it if there isn't anything better on the menu). If the Democrats can find a strong contender and Ernst's polling goes south, she might drop out rather than face a battle, especially if a blue tsunami is forming. In a blue tsunami with the right candidate, Iowa could at least be competitive.

Also on retirement watch, albeit the "involuntary retirement watch," is Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). He is facing firebrand Texas AG Ken Paxton in what is shaping up to be a bitter primary. Paxton is exceedingly Trumpy and Cornyn is not. If Trump endorses Paxton, that could mean that Cornyn is sent into retirement, even though that is not part of his game plan. Could the Democrats win an open seat in Texas? The odds are against it, but Paxton is the kind of shoot-first-think-later guy who could say something on camera so damaging that even Texans can't stomach it. Let's put it this way: If Democrats are going to win in Texas anytime soon, they'll need to draw an opponent like Ken Paxton.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) hasn't officially launched her campaign yet, and she did vote against the Big Bill, which could help a bit. However, if Democrats get their druthers and Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) jumps in to oppose Collins, the senator might decide to go home, even though home (Caribou, ME) is only 10 miles from a foreign country as the crow flies, and of course she knows all about those dastardly immigrants sneaking across the border from foreign countries. Caribou could soon be overrun. You never know.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) has crossed swords with Trump a few times in the past, but has since taken to hiding under his desk in the Senate. He has already drawn a couple of primary challengers. Trump has the memory of a flea when it comes to policy but the memory of an elephant when it comes to perceived slights. If Trump decides to back one of Cassidy's challengers, then Sen. Cassidy might decide to go back to being Dr. Cassidy (he was a liver specialist).

These possible vacancies aside, all the Senate talk now is about North Carolina's actual upcoming vacancy. Democrats are praying that Lara Yunaska Trump, who is married to Eric Trump, will announce a run. She was born in Wilmington, NC, grew up there, and has a degree in communications from North Carolina State University, so she would not be a complete carpetbagger, despite not having lived in North Carolina in 20 years. Is she Trumpy? If you have any doubts, check out her last name again. She has never run for anything before so she can't run on her experience. All she has to offer is her last name. And boy would that bring out Democrats in droves. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) has said he will not run, no matter what Lara Trump does.

The other thing to keep an eye on is what former governor Roy Cooper does. North Carolina is a purple state. The North Carolina governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction are all Democrats. Although the last Democrat to win the state's electoral votes was Barack Obama in 2008, Democrats do regularly win elections in North Carolina. Against Lara Trump, Cooper would have at least even odds, maybe better, and if a blue wave builds up, he would be the favorite, as he left office with an approval rating of +14 points. Cooper knows that the day he announced, a few million dollars would roll in and that would probably pass $100 million before the campaign started in earnest.

The New Hampshire race could be interesting. It looks like Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) vs. former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown. In that race, Pappas will point out a few times that his family has been in New Hampshire since his great grandfather moved there from Greece, while Brown recently represented Massachusetts in the Senate. How many ways can you spell C-A-R-P-E-T-B-A-G-G-E-R?

The Michigan race is unsettled. Three high-profile Democrats are already in and more could follow. They are state Rep. Joe Tate, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens. Michigan AG Dana Nessel might yet enter. On the Republican side, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers is the only well-known candidate so far, but there is a long list of possible entrants.

Minnesota is kind of a blue state; the biggest question is which Democrat will win the primary. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN) is part Native American, which gets the lefties all excited. But her likely primary opponent is Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) who is a lesbian. Needless to say, there will be a big battle of which group is more deserving of a Senate seat. No top-tier Republican is in yet.

Alabama, Illinois, and Kentucky are not going to flip, no matter who the candidates are. (V)