Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's general approach to the world can be best described as "divide and conquer." He wants to break up NATO and deal with each country individually. On trade, he wants to make roughly 200 separate deals, one per country. So far, Trump has signed two actual trade deals, one with the U.K. and one with Vietnam, as well as a mini-deal with China.
Yesterday, to turn up the heat, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent told CNN's State of the Union that any country that did not have a bilateral deal in place by Aug. 1 would be hit by the tariffs Trump announced on his so-called "Liberation Day." Some of the tariffs are astronomical and would block all trade with that country. This is true of many countries with people in them, not just the ones populated entirely by penguins. It is worth noting that, shortly after announcing the absurd tariffs, very possibly created by AI, Trump then paused them for 90 days. The new Aug. 1 deadline is thus actually an extension to his previous extension.
Trade deals are very complicated and most countries are not going to sign off on some half-baked deal that could wound their economies just to give Trump a "win." In some cases, countries don't export a lot of stuff to the U.S., so killing that trade won't mean a big hit to the U.S. economy, although it could hurt the other country more. Big countries (like China) and blocs (the E.U.) have plenty of leverage, so those deals won't be one-sided. But at this point, practically everyone who can read the news knows, well, TACO.
Bessent said that letters would be sent today to at least a dozen countries warning them that the clock is ticking and they better make a deal fast, or else. Bessent also lied, saying that foreign countries pay the tariffs. That's false and he knows it. They are paid by U.S. importers at the point of entry. In nearly all cases, the tariff is passed on to U.S. businesses or consumers in the form of higher prices.
The country with the most leverage over Trump is China. There are a vast number of products that come only from China and if trade stops, those products will cease to be available. Consumers will notice that. Will they blame Chinese President Xi Jinping? We very much doubt it. China also is the main source of rare earth elements used in many industries. If China stops exporting them, many factories will close, American workers will be unemployed, GDP will crash, and Trump will get the blame. Xi knows this but Trump may not. (V)