Dem
47
GOP
53
We have taken the position numerous times, including earlier this week, that Donald Trump has no trade policy. It is true that he loves one of the main tools of trade policy, namely tariffs. But there's no coherent or consistent plan that is being implemented.
There are many ways to tell that there's no plan. The first is that Trump talks about protecting American industry, and also about opening foreign markets to American goods. The former is protectionism, the latter is open trade, and they are fundamentally in conflict. The second is that exactly what tariffs will be imposed, and on what nations, and on what timeline, changes on an almost daily basis. The third is that the administration has promised that (literally) hundreds of trade deals would be in place by July or August, and yet there are only three trade deals so far, and two of those are preliminary.
In the past couple of days, Trump has put on yet another performance of his improvised one-man show, Trade War, and it left everyone's heads spinning. On Thursday, he sat for two interviews with NBC (one for Meet the Press, one for the NBC Nightly News), and announced that he plans to hit Canada with a 35% tariff, because that nation has failed to eliminate all the fentanyl in the universe. He also said that any nation that does not reach a trade deal with the U.S. soon would be hit with a blanket tariff of 15%, or 20%, or 25% (the number changed throughout the day). This is an increase over the 10% blanket tariff he had already promised to impose.
And that's not all. Thursday's decrees come on the heels of threats, earlier in the week, to slap a 50% tariff on all copper imports, and a tariff of as much as 200% on pharmaceutical imports. He also announced that the August 1 cutoff for trade deals that he had previously described as a "soft" deadline is now a "hard" deadline. We guess its Viagra must have kicked in. Or his did.
This wild oscillation is bad enough, and we haven't even gotten to the nuttiest development on the trade-war front. On Wednesday, Trump used his second-most-bigoted social media platform (see below for #1) to post a copy of a letter he sent to Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Here's the opening (and key) portion:
I knew and dealt with former President Jair Bolsonaro, and respected him greatly, as did most other Leaders of Countries. The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his Term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace. This Trial should not be taking place. It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!
Due in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans (as lately illustrated by the Brazilian Supreme Court, which has issued hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market), starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on any and all Brazilian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade this 50% Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.
As you can see, Trump is upset about two things: (1) the ongoing trial of Jair Bolsonaro, who is charged with trying to engineer a coup to keep himself in office in 2022; and (2) alleged censorship of American social media in Brazil.
It is hard to say which of these causes of action is more inappropriate. Obviously, in Bolsonaro—a wannabe dictator who tried to steal an election—Trump sees a kindred soul, and so has transferred a bunch of his own imagined grievances to the Brazilian. As to the social media portion, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has issued several rulings that limit the ability of social media companies to propagate anti-democratic and/or hateful content in Brazil. One of the companies that has been affected by those rulings is Trump Media & Technology Group, which has filed suit in Brazil.
Whichever of the two grievances is worse, in both cases, Trump is: (1) using tariff policy, under the aegis of an imagined "national emergency," to (2) tread upon Brazil's sovereignty, (3) in service of his own personal goals. Nothing here has anything to do with trade, and nothing here has anything to do with advancing the interests of the United States. It is all about Trump wanting—needing—to lash out, and picking up the largest and most accessible flamethrower with which he might do so. Off the record, White House insiders have confirmed that other options for pressuring Brazil were presented to the President, but they were too slow-moving and/or complicated for him.
It is hard to imagine what national leader would negotiate with the Trump administration under these circumstances. They might perform a negotiation pantomime, in which everyone puts on nice suits, and dines on lamb chops with mint jelly, and agrees to mild changes in trade relations, so Trump can claim a "major win." But beyond that? Trump's tariff threats are driven entirely by emotion and his own personal needs, and working with him (as Canada already has) affords zero guarantee that he won't aim the flamethrower at you again, when the mood strikes. Meanwhile, his "deadlines" have yet to amount to anything. ONE TIME he actually stuck to a deadline, imposed a bunch of tariffs, saw the markets (especially the bond markets) tank, and changed course after 3 days. Beyond that, he always grants himself an extension, or otherwise backs down. Remember, TACO. (Z)