Jul.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Channeling Elbridge Gerry: GOP Desperately Trying to Save House Majority

House Republicans, from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on down, are putting on a brave front, and insisting that they are confident heading into next year's midterm elections. This is a necessity; showing weakness would undermine fundraising. However, every single Republican officeholder (except maybe Donald Trump) knows full well that: (1) midterm elections usually go against the party that controls the White House; (2) Trump is unpopular (12 points underwater, on average) and (3) the BBB is VERY unpopular (23 points underwater, on average). These things are not good omens for the Republicans' hopes on November 3, 2026.

That the GOP's movers and shakers know the truth, regardless of their public posture, is indicated by an effort, already underway, to hold onto the majority in the House. Although congressional districts are normally redrawn once every 10 years, it's legal to redraw them more frequently. And so, two Republican-controlled states are at work on this option.

If you think about it, you could probably guess which two states, if you don't already know. For this to make sense, these four things have to be true:

1. The state's population has to be pretty large. There is nothing to be gained in trying to gerrymander a one- or two-district state.
   
   
2. The state has to be purple-red. That is to say, it has to be red enough that Republicans control the legislature and the governorship, but purple enough that there are potentially some blue districts to steal.
   
   
3. The district-drawing process has to be controlled—either initially, or eventually—by partisan actors.
   
   
4. The state can't already be gerrymandered six ways to Sunday.

In case readers have forgotten, that last qualifier excludes Florida. Remember how the Florida legislature gerrymandered the heck out of the map, and then ended up in a war with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), because he wanted to gerrymander it even more aggressively? He eventually got his way, so there's no more blood to be squeezed out of that blood orange.

That leaves the two candidates that check all of the above boxes: Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, a new district map is required by state law, because the current district map did not pass with bipartisan support. The Ohio Redistricting Commission gets first crack, but if it cannot come up with a map that gets the backing of a supermajority of the members of the Commission, then it falls to the Republican-dominated state legislature.

Under Ohio law, the legislature can adopt a "permanent" map (that is, one in effect until the next census) with a supermajority, or a "temporary" map (that is, one in effect for a single election cycle) with a simple majority. There are rules for the "temporary" map, and whether or not they have been followed properly is a question for the Ohio Supreme Court. When the current "temporary" map was adopted, the Court was 4-3 in favor of the Republicans. Now, it's 6-1 in favor.

In view of this, Ohio Republicans are salivating, and thinking they can maybe turn the current 10R, 5D delegation into 12R, 3D, or possibly 13R, 2D. If this effort is successful, the two Democrats most likely to lose their seats are Marcy Kaptur, who has held on for years in a northwest Ohio district (OH-09) that is R+3, and Emilia Sykes, whose district in northeast Ohio (OH-13) currently has a PVI of EVEN.

In Texas, by contrast, there is nothing that requires maps to be redrawn—Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) just wants to do it, in service of his partisan ends. He has called a special session of the Texas legislature to commence in a little over a week, and by state law the Governor gets to set the agenda for that session. Abbott has just added "discuss redrawing the Congressional district maps" to the legislature's to-do list.

Currently, the Texas House delegation is 25R, 13D. Because the gerrymandering plans are still in the preliminary stages, it's not clear how many seats the GOP might try to pick up. Undoubtedly, the districts of Democrats Henry Cuellar (TX-28, R+2) and Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34, EVEN) would be targeted. There could be others, but it would require some very acrobatic map-drawing, as the next "reddest" district occupied by a Democrat is the D+11 TX-16 (Veronica Escobar).

In neither state is a more aggressive gerrymander a done deal. It is at least possible that the politicians will be leery, in part because gerrymandering is politically unpopular, and in part because a more aggressive gerrymander entails greater risk. The more Republican districts that are created, the greater the chance of big losses in a blue wave. And even if the state legislatures agree to play ball, the courts will be asked to weigh in, and you can never tell what will happen there. In any event, with the House the most vulnerable part of the current Republican trifecta, this is going to be an important story over the next year or so. (Z)