Dem
47
GOP
53
Seven senators have already said they are not running for reelection—four Democrats and three Republicans. Only one, Thom Tillis, dropped out because he had a good chance of losing. All eyes are now on Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), to see if she is the next one in that category.
There was not much doubt that Ernst would be easily reelected until she was confronted at a town hall by a constituent who asked about her support for cutting Medicaid and pointing out that Iowans will die as a result of the bill. Ernst said: "Well, we all are going to die." That didn't go over well and was soon all over the national media. It hurt her so much that there are now quite a few people (including some Republican senators) who think she may drop out and not run for reelection rather than risk a defeat at the ballot box. So far, Ernst hasn't announced her plans for 2026.
Ernst raised $1.1 million in Q1 2025. This is an acceptable amount for a sitting senator in an off year, but nothing spectacular. Her Q2 take will shed more light on her situation.
Many people are already speculating about what might happen if she drops out. The expectation is that Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), the top fundraiser in the Iowa House delegation, will jump in the minute Ernst jumps out. Hinson is a former TV anchor. Two Democrats, state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. J.D. Scholten, are already in. While Iowa has become a red state after years of being a swing state, an open-seat race is generally more competitive than one with an incumbent running. In a blue wave, an open-seat race could definitely be competitive.
On the other hand, some Democrats would prefer that a badly damaged Ernst, not a representative with no baggage, was the candidate. No doubt the NRSC is already polling the state and if Ernst appears to be a loser, will inform her of that. (V)