Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats often dream of winning statewide races in Texas, but it never seems to happen. For a little while, they had actual hope that this might finally be the year. Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) filed to challenge Sen John Cornyn (R-TX). Cornyn would win reelection easily, but Paxton is such a loose cannon that he could conceivably lose the general election if he beats Cornyn in the Republican primary.
Paxton also has a lot of baggage, such as having been impeached by the Texas House for bribery, abuse of power, obstruction of justice and a raft of other charges. Paxton's alleged infidelity (with a Senate aide) was brought up during the trial but his lawyer used the "100 years defense." The lawyer said: "Imagine if we impeached everybody here in Austin that had an affair. We'd be impeaching for the next 100 years, wouldn't we?" The defense worked. Paxton was not convicted and is still Texas' AG.
Interestingly enough, Paxton is married to a Texas state senator, Angela Paxton. The Senate voted to disenfranchise her since the optics of her voting about her husband's guilt or innocence didn't look so good. Now she has thrown a monkey wrench in his election plans. She has announced that she has filed for divorce from him on "biblical grounds," after 38 years of marriage. In her petition, she accused him of adultery. Her husband blamed the petition on the pressures Angela faces as a state senator.
The NRSC wants to get rid of the AG in the worst way. If he were to win the primary (and polls show him ahead), he could actually lose the general election due to that ol' "candidate quality" problem. Even in Texas, voters will tolerate only so much. Now Cornyn and the NRSC see the divorce as a way to paint Paxton as a disgusting scumbag.
One thing that will help the AG is that the judge in the divorce case has decided to seal all the records of the divorce proceedings, so Texas voters won't get to know what is going on or what Angela's hubby actually did and with whom. Angela may put out her side of the story, but Ken will deny everything and no one will know for sure who is lying.
An interesting factor here is which side Donald Trump is on. Paxton is very Trumpy and what's a bit of adultery between friends? It happens all the time. If Trump supports Paxton in the end, that will mitigate the damage from the divorce. So far, Trump hasn't taken sides. One thing that could help Paxton's campaign is that the primary is next year and voters have very short memories. By then, the couple may well be divorced and the storm may have abated.
Control of the Senate could well end up depending on Iowa and Texas, if all the stars align for the Democrats. That would mean getting Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) to challenge Susan Collins and former North Carolina governor Roy Cooper to announce for Tillis' seat. It would also require Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) to draw a weak opponent in Georgia. None of these things are impossible, but it would require almost all of them to happen for the Senate to flip. (V)