Dem
47
GOP
53
It is very easy to sit in the cheap seats and talk about how everything would be so very much better if you were in charge. It gets far, far, far more difficult once you're in the hot seat, and the buck stops with you. At the moment, Donald Trump is in the midst of several messes, largely of his own making, any or all of which could serve to undermine his support, even among some members of his base.
First up is the mess in Ukraine. Truth be told, we're not quite sure how to explain the dynamic that has unfolded, particularly in the last week or so. It's pretty clear that Vladimir Putin thought he had Trump wrapped around his finger. And he was right, it would seem, for a very long time, but not anymore. Meanwhile, it's also pretty clear that Trump thought he had a close buddy in Putin. That was never the case; Putin does not have friends, only useful idiots. We assume, for want of a better explanation, that Trump's sudden interest in defending and arming Ukraine is primarily due to his having finally awakened to the fact that he was duped by Putin, taking it personally, and deciding to seek payback.
The other possibility we can think of is that someone persuaded Trump that the war could be a moneymaking opportunity for the United States, and that is what got him excited. He loves, loves, loves money, of course, and he might be able to shrink the hole that the BBB blew in the budget by as much as 0.5%!
In any case, over the weekend, Trump took steps toward sending another shipment of arms to Ukraine (with Europe picking up at least some of the bill). And yesterday, he took things even further, telling Putin he has 50 days to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, or else there will be punishment via "severe tariffs."
One can scarcely imagine a threat less likely to achieve its ostensible goals than this one. Starting with the Russian side of the equation, there is a pretty good case to be made that Putin cannot afford to have this war come to an end; that the war effort is keeping Russia nominally unified, and is deflecting attention from problems in Russian society. Certainly, the Russian President cannot afford to end the war without substantial territorial or other gains, which he will not get today, tomorrow, or in any of the next 50 days. And finally, even if Putin somehow was planning to throw in the towel in the near future, he's not going to do it now, because he cannot appear to be taking marching orders from the leader of the United States. It would be an affront to Putin's Russian manhood to take orders from anyone, but in particular from the guy who leads Russia's longstanding rival and enemy.
And then, from the American side, exactly how meaningful a threat is "severe tariffs"? Russia is already so thoroughly sanctioned that direct tariffs will mean virtually nothing. Even Trump realizes this, and so the "severe tariffs" would be imposed on Russia's trading partners. But Russia's three main trading partners are China, The Netherlands and Germany. Trump has already waved his tariff saber in China's direction many times; will brandishing it one more time have any impact on Xi Jinping at all? And is Trump going to simultaneously try to sell arms to Germany and The Netherlands (who are both NATO allies, by the way), while at the same time hitting them with punitive tariffs? Oh, and the leaders of all three countries also know that: (1) Trump uses tariffs recklessly, as his all-purpose solution to all problems (see Brazil and Jair Bolsonaro) and (2) TACO.
We will see what happens in 50 days (well, it's now 49 days), but we foresee Trump generously granting himself another extension, as he usually does. Meanwhile, whatever happens, the President's approach is roiling his base. Roughly speaking, Trump's base is about equally divided into three factions: (1) isolationists, (2) folks who are pro-Russia because Trump told them to be pro-Russia, and (3) folks who are pro-Ukraine because they hate Godless pinko commies, just like St. Ronnie of Reagan did. The third faction is semi-happy right now, although even they are concerned that Trump is not giving the Ukrainians everything they need.
Meanwhile, the other two factions, particularly the isolationists, are furious. Trump has been trying to pitch the idea that if the U.S. is selling the weaponry, rather than giving it, then it's just The Art of the Deal, Part 223, and entirely consistent with "America First." The isolationists believe that "America First" actually means "If the United States is not threatened directly, then the U.S. should not get involved." It will not be possible for Trump to make all three factions happy, although he's doing a fairly decent job of making all three factions unhappy. (Z)