Jul.15

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Life on the Hot Seat, Part III: The Texas Flood

By now, everyone knows about the 100-year flood in Texas; the current death toll is 131, with 97 people still missing, and new storms on the horizon.

Consistent with the theme running through much of today's posting, the floods are a definite political problem for Donald Trump in particular, and for the Republican Party in general. There are at least three reasons for that:

1. DOGE: Elon Musk and his DOGEys fired a lot of people, or otherwise ran them out of their government jobs. Quite a few of these people were part of the National Weather Service, or other such concerns whose job it is to anticipate extreme weather events, and to warn potential victims. The Texas flood was an extreme weather event and, obviously, a lot of people in the path of the flood did not get warned. You can see the problem.
   
   Of course, even the best experts, with the best equipment, and the best data, cannot foresee everything. So, it is at least possible that DOGE is not responsible here, and that this tragedy would have taken place with or without the "work" of Elon Musk. There are, however, two problems here. First, voters have a habit of connecting "A" and "B," even if the connection doesn't quite work, because voters get angry when children die and because voters often want someone to blame. Second, the guy who is in charge of "warning coordination"—making sure the right information gets to the right people in time—is Paul Yura. Or, actually, he WAS the guy in charge, until he was compelled to take early retirement... by DOGE. In other words, some people are going to be inclined to blame the administration here, fair or not, and in this case, it's probably fair.
   
   
2. Rule-Bending: As reporters have looked under rocks and in closets to try to figure out what happened in Texas and why, they have learned that Camp Mystic, the young girls' summer camp that was hit hard by the flood (and suffered at least 27 campers/staffers dead), got FEMA to waive flood-safety requirements for 15 of its buildings in 2013, and for another 15 of its buildings in 2019. It's not yet clear why the camp asked for this; it could have been to make it cheaper to renovate the buildings, or it could have been to save on flood insurance. In any case, although presidents obviously do not sign off on every decision made by FEMA, see what we wrote above about voters wanting someone to blame. 2013, of course, was during the Obama presidency, while 2019 was during Trump v1.0. At the moment, between Obama and Trump, only one is currently in the White House.
   
   
3. Tone-Deaf Response: It is a fair question whether there is value in presidents visiting disaster sites. On one hand, by going they show they care, and maybe they can help lift survivors' spirits. On the other hand, they and their security detail are a huge distraction, and at a time when distractions are very much not wanted. Also, if they don't do empathy well (and Trump doesn't), then their visit might not be all that uplifting.
   
   There is much less question, however, that the leader of FEMA should be on-site soon after a disaster. They are much less of a distraction, given that they attract much less attention, and they have a much smaller entourage. Meanwhile, by being there, they show that they are working hard to help. Plus, they may see or learn things that allow them to do a better job of rendering aid. Well, the current (acting) FEMA administrator, David Richardson, is MIA. Perhaps he is in Cancun. In any event, it is bad optics, and makes it seem like the administration doesn't really care.

Of these three news items, we would guess the Texas flood is least likely to hurt Trump and/or to hurt Republicans nationally. Indeed, it appears the story is already fading from the headlines. But you can never know, and so we mention the potential issues that have emerged, just in case. Further, even if this does not remain resonant on a national level, it will certainly linger in the minds of Texans. And it could very well become a campaign issue if Texas AG Ken Paxton, who is part of the state government, is the GOP's U.S. Senate nominee. (Z)