Dem
47
GOP
53
The biggest bellwether election this year is the race for governor of Virginia. The New York City race for mayor may get more attention, but that is simply a question of which Democrat will be elected mayor. In Virginia, it is a normal partisan contest featuring Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) vs. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA).
Earle-Sears is being crushed, and Virginia Republicans are scared. The most recent poll has Spanberger ahead by 12 points with a trendline in her favor. Spanberger has raised $27 million so far and has $15 million in the bank now. In contrast, Earle-Sears has raised only $11 million and has only $4 million in the bank. Earle-Sears is realizing she has a problem, so she fired her campaign manager, Will Archer. None of this looks promising for the GOP.
One Republican consultant moaned that Earle-Sears is acting like she is running for reelection to the House in a safe district rather than opposing an excellent fundraiser in an open-seat race in a bluish state. Some Republican strategists are worried that if the narrative is that Earle-Sears will be crushed, many Republican voters will stay home, dragging down the rest of the ticket. The lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor, and Earle-Sears could take down the Republican nominee, radio host John Reid. In the race for AG, former state Del. Jay Jones (D) is leading the current AG, Jason Miyares (R), 47% to 38%. Earle-Sears' lackluster campaign could take down all Republicans running statewide and locally as well.
Some Republican strategists are urging Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) to take over Earle-Sears' campaign. He might not want to be too associated, however, with a sinking ship because that could impact his likely 2028 presidential run. Having other Republicans later say "Youngkin took over the campaign for his successor and she was crushed" is not a recommendation for him. He might well prefer to stay out of it and let her go down rather than tarnish his own reputation. If he indeed stays out, Earle-Sears is looking more and more like a lost cause. (V)