Jul.25

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Candidate News: Who Will Succeed Tony Evers?

When we last checked in with the gubernatorial races, we covered states A-M. Today, it's states N-Z:

• Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) has drawn only one primary opponent, and it's an unserious super-MAGA perennial candidate named Irene Hansen, whose main platform is that she wants a government that tells the truth. It is unfortunate for her that she launched just days before the Epstein saga commenced.
  
  Anyhow, Lombardo is of middling popularity, and he'll eventually face a serious Democratic challenge, probably from state AG Aaron Ford. Consequently, the Governor is trying to burnish his résumé, and his current strategy for doing so is to claim as much credit for the BBB as is possible. This is probably a shrewd strategy, since there is no state with more voters who live on tips than Nevada. On the other hand, if their tax break proves underwhelming, or if more negative aspects of the BBB begin to affect the state, Lombardo could come to regret his choice.
  
  
• New Hampshire: Inasmuch as The Granite State leans blue, Democrats think they really ought to be able to pick off Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), particularly in a blue wave. However, the early returns are not good. First, you can't beat someone with no one, and the blue team doesn't have a candidate yet. The only person who has even suggested they might think about it is former state Sen. Tom Sherman, who lost badly (57%-41%) to Gov. Chris Sununu (R) when trying for the top job back in 2022. Second, Ayotte is raking the money in, at least by New Hampshire standards. She set a state record for the first half of an off year, bringing in just shy of a million dollars. There are some states where that won't even get you a meeting with the state party, but in New Hampshire, that's some serious lucre.
  
  
• New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is up for reelection in 2026. She is not terribly popular. In fact, she is sufficiently unpopular that her handpicked right-hand man, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D), is challenging her in a primary. Delgado was chosen by Hochul after the previous lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, was arrested in a corruption scandal and resigned his post. Hochul then plucked Delgado out of Congress to be her #2.
  
  But Hochul is far from being dead meat. Many state Democrats don't think challenging a sitting Democratic governor in a state where Republicans have been making gains recently is a grand idea. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) tweeted: "Antonio, you are a talented guy, with a great future. Based upon my experience this may not be the most well-thought out idea!" He knows. Suozzi challenged Hochul in a primary in 2022 and lost. Other Democrats, including the Democratic Governors' Association, also back Hochul. So did Delgado's congressional successor, Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY).
  
  Hochul also has several advantages. First, she is known statewide and he is barely known at all. Second, she already has $15 million in the bank. In her 2022 campaign, she raised $60 million and could probably do it again. That kind of money is probably out of Delgado's league. Third, in terms of ideology, they aren't that different. He isn't a male version of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) by any means. They are both moderates. So what is the argument for him?
  
  The Republicans figure to put up a pretty good fight... assuming they can find a strong candidate. For the last couple of months, it looked like there could be a bloodbath on that side of the contest, pitting the less Trumpy Rep. Mike Lawler against the more Trumpy Rep. Elise Stefanik. However, Lawler announced this week that he is not going to run. That is potentially good news for the Republicans, and for Stefanik, as it means there may not be a bruising primary. That said, it's also good news for the Democrats, as Lawler is more electable than Stefanik. There was a time when Stefanik was a moderate and was a rising star in New York State. But she went all-in on Trump, which may be good for the voters of her district (the R+10 NY-21), and may be good in terms of national politics, but is not a good calling card in New York.
  
  Hochul is certainly aware of this, and is already preparing for a campaign in which she will attempt to paint Trump and Stefanik as being joined at the hip. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) knows it, too. He is encouraging Stefanik to jump in. We presume she is clever enough to know that Jeffries is not on Team Elise, and that his goals are to stick the Republicans with a weak gubernatorial candidate, possibly while also leaving a Republican-held House seat vacant for some number of months. New York does not have a resign-to-run law, but gubernatorial candidates customarily resign their federal offices nonetheless, so as to avoid the impression that they are hedging their bets.
  
  
• Rhode Island: The situation in Rhode Island is sort of a mirror image of the one in New Hampshire. In this case, it is a Democratic governor, Dan McKee, who is vulnerable. Not because he is not a match for the underlying demographics of Rhode Island, and not because of a potential red wave, but because he's very unpopular. The latest Ocean State Poll has him with just 19% approval, against 71% disapproval. That's a staggering 52 points underwater.
  
  That said, Rhode Islanders tend to hate their governors, and while the state was once purple, it's now quite blue. The Republicans do have two declared candidates, state Senate Minority Leader Jessica de la Cruz, and business owner Ashley Kalus, who is semi-Trumpy and who lost the 2022 gubernatorial election. Neither of them is considered to be a particularly strong candidate. What the Democrats are really hoping for, even if they can't say it openly, is that someone, like state AG Peter Neronha (D), gets in on the Democratic primary and knocks off McKee. Then the blue team won't be stuck with a standard-bearer who is, you know, 52 points underwater.
  
  
• South Dakota: The Republicans got their preferred candidate when Rep. Dusty Johnson declared a run. That's quite a name; please feel free to make your own jokes. Johnson will face a primary challenge from Speaker of the state House Jon Hansen, and is expected to win easily, thanks to the backing of the Republican machinery. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R-SD) became governor when Kristi Noem lucked out and drew a get-out-of-South-Dakota card. Rhoden hasn't announced if he wants a full term. Not everyone sees 4 years in Pierre, SD, as their dream job. Noem couldn't wait to leave. A possible Democratic candidate is Robert Arnold, a student at Dakota State who will reach the minimum legal age to serve as governor about 2 months before the general election. His professors are presumably about to get a heaping helping of the excuse that we've all heard a million times: "I couldn't finish my paper in time, I was too busy running for governor."
  
  
• Texas: No Republican is interested in trying to take on Boss Gov. Greg Abbott (R), so he is already planning for the general. The Democrats have two candidates; the one who's gotten attention is Bobby Cole, a folksy rancher who wears a cowboy hat and boots, and drives a big truck, and looks like he came right out of central casting. He's already cut an ad that is getting a fair bit of engagement on social media:
  
  
  
  If you don't want to watch it, he takes shots at Abbott, Donald Trump and Elon Musk, and says he wants to keep the government out of people's private lives, protect Medicaid, legalize pot, and fix the Texas electrical grid. That seems like a pretty good platform for a Texas Democrat to us. We don't expect Cole to become the next governor, but Abbott does have some pretty big liabilities, so you never know.
  
  
• Wisconsin: Other than New York, this is where the biggest news has been in the last week or so. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has the approval of 48% of Wisconsin voters, against 46% who disapprove, putting him two points above water. That may seem poor, but it actually makes him the most popular politician in Wisconsin by a fair margin. That said, while Wisconsinites like him better than anyone else, 55% of them do not want him to run for a third term.
  
  Evers is 73, and has spent 50 years in the public sector, with nearly 20 of that in elective office. Maybe he's had enough, or maybe he didn't like what the polls were telling him, or maybe it was something else, but whatever the case may be, he announced yesterday that he's retiring at the end of this term.
  
  That pretty much automatically makes Wisconsin ground zero for the 2026 gubernatorial elections. In the last four presidential elections, the state has gone D, R, D, R. Meanwhile, the last four governors have been R, D, R, D. Four of the five statewide officials elected on a partisan basis are Democrats (the exception is Treasurer John Leiber), but the legislature is controlled by Republicans (thanks, in no small part, to gerrymandering). It's pretty much the textbook example of a purple state, and every one of the major political prognosticators has it as "Toss Up" or "Battleground," depending on which term they prefer to use.
  
  We might be able to say a little bit more if we knew who was running, but all the serious candidates on both sides of the aisle were keeping their powder dry until Evers revealed his plans. There are three declared candidates already (one Democrat, two Republicans), but they are unknowns, and will undoubtedly be swept aside by one of the dozen or so people who are on their respective parties' benches.

Next week, we gotta do federal offices. There have been many developments in the various races for the Senate and the House. (Z & V)