Dem
47
GOP
53
A new poll from Gallup shows that Donald Trump's approval rating among all American adults has dropped to 37%, the lowest point of Trump v2.0. Trump's approval among Democrats is about what you would expect (2%), as is his approval among Republicans (80%). But among independents, it could be concerning to Trump, as it is only 29%. The poll was taken just after the BBB passed.
Presidential approval is always a big factor in midterm elections. When the president is unpopular, his party gets whacked harder than when he is popular, and 37% is pretty bad. Of course, there is plenty of time to recover, but that requires doing something people approve of.
On many issues, Trump's approval has dropped since the February Gallup poll. This includes foreign affairs (-3 since February), the Middle East (-4), the economy (-5), trade (-6) and immigration (-8). Gallup didn't ask about Ukraine and the budget in February, but Trump is down 8 points on Ukraine since March and 14 points on the budget since March.
Trump is strongest among Republicans on foreign affairs (93% approval) and, somewhat ironically, weakest on Ukraine (70%). Maybe Republicans don't realize that is a foreign country, and so falls under the rubric of "foreign affairs." He is strongest with independents on Iran (36%) and weakest with them on the budget (19%). Among Democrats, Trump's approval is single digits on everything except Ukraine, where it is 12%.
It is instructive to compare presidents since World War II. Gallup has computed the average approval over multiple polls in the second quarter of their presidencies. Here are the results:
The worst-ever second-quarter performance is 39%, which Trump achieved in 2017. Next worst is 40%, which is Trump's average Q2 this year. The only president besides Trump to do better in his second term than his first term is Bill Clinton, who gained 12 points in his second term. Most other presidents took a real beating. (V)