Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump effectively drove Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) out of the Senate. That probably wasn't a smart move, since incumbents generally survive midterms whereas open seats often go to the party not in the White House. We won't know for sure until next November. Nevertheless, Trump now has his candidate for the Senate in North Carolina. And surprise, it is not Lara Trump, who had been considering a race. Last week she announced that she was out. She said her decision was aided by discussion with her family, friends, and supporters. Interestingly enough, she didn't say that God told her not to run. After all, he intervenes in many races. Maybe he is a Yankee.
Why did Lara decide not to run? We don't know for sure, but some old polls showed that former governor Roy Cooper would beat Lara Trump soundly. If her own internal polls also showed that, that could be the real reason.
In any event, Donald Trump quickly got behind former RNC chairman Michael Whatley, even though Whatley is not in the race yet. He is expected to join soon. Whatley has never run for public office before, but he sure is interested in politics. As a high school sophomore, he helped out in the campaign of then-senator Jesse Helms. After getting a B.A. in history from UNC, a master's in religion from Wake Forest University, a master's in theology from Notre Dame, and a J.D. from Notre Dame, he joined the legal team working on the 2000 recount in Florida for George W. Bush. He later worked as chief of staff for then-senator Elizabeth Dole and later become a partner in a lobbying firm. In 2019, he became chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party and then chairman of the RNC. All those jobs are deeply political, but being around politicians is different from being the actual candidate.
Democrats are desperately hoping that former two-term governor Roy Cooper jumps in to challenge Whatley. Cooper has hinted that he will run, but hasn't come out and said it yet. Some rumors say that he will announce his entry as soon as today. If he does, the race will almost certainly be Whatley vs. Cooper, as no Republican has a chance challenging Trump's pick and no Democrat could beat the popular and experienced Cooper. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D) is already in, but as soon as Cooper jumps in, he's toast. If he is smart, he might be able to make a deal with Cooper that he will drop out and endorse Cooper in exchange for being Cooper's chief of staff if Cooper wins. We haven't seen any polling of Whatley-Cooper yet, but it won't be long. Hundreds of millions of dollars will soon flood into the state; North Carolina U.S. Senate elections are among the most expensive to be found anywhere, because the state is purple and has many large media markets. This might be a good time to buy stock in North Carolina radio and television stations. Business will be great for the next 16 months. (V)