Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump understands that if Democrats take the House in 2026, he will be impeached at least once, and possibly multiple times on different charges. He really wants to prevent this. Getting Texas to turn a few blue seats red is one way, but he has many irons in the fire.
Another way is selecting candidates. In open districts and districts where a Democratic incumbent is being challenged, Trump wants to avoid contentious and expensive primaries. His way of doing this is to pre-select and endorse candidates in the hopes of clearing the field. However, he also wants Trumpy candidates, who often have a "candidate quality" problem. Wanting to win and wanting a true-blue (true-red?) loyalist are sometimes in conflict.
As we get further along, Trump will also openly endorse candidates and campaign with them—if they want it. In swing districts, his endorsement and campaign appearances aren't always welcome, because although they excite the base they also enrage the opposition.
What Trump is also doing is encouraging candidates in swing districts to stay put and not run for higher office, rather than creating an empty seat. Case in point: IA-03, which is R+2 and includes Des Moines as well as many counties in the southwestern part of Iowa. The incumbent, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA), wants to run for governor, since that is an open-seat race. Trump ordered him to stay put in Congress, for fear of losing the seat. Nunn obeyed, but can't be too happy about it, since he had a good shot at becoming governor. Similarly, Trump ordered Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) to stay in his Hudson Valley seat and not run for governor of New York, even though Lawler is by far the strongest candidate the Republicans have in New York.
In Michigan, Trump told Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) to stay put in his R+3 district and not run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). Trump has endorsed Mike Rogers and doesn't want a primary, even though Rogers isn't all that Trumpy.
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) knows she is going to die one day and hasn't decided if people who are going to die belong in the Senate. Trump wants her in there, even if she dies at her desk, like John Quincy Adams did. She is 55 and as long as she can hang on in there until Jan. 20, 2029, he doesn't care what happens to her after that. Trump is also concerned about Maine and definitely wants Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) to run for reelection, even though she might well lose. Polls show that 70% of Mainers have had enough of her and she would probably prefer to go out a winner than have the people of Maine fire her, but Trump is pressuring her to run again.
Two close Trump aides, Tony Fabrizio, his pollster, and Chris LaCivita, his campaign manager, are his eyes and ears on the ground. They are scouting the land looking for places where Trump's presence or pressure could matter. Fabrizio is the pollster for more than a dozen statewide Republican candidates and LaCivita is involved in Mike Rogers' race as well as that of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Both are in constant contact with Trump's chief of staff, Susie Wiles.
One race that is a conundrum is the Texas Senate race. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is a loyal Republican and can be counted on to do what Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) tells him to do, but Cornyn is not very Trumpy. He is being challenged by the fire-breathing Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) who has a couple of "candidate quality" problems, like adultery, an ongoing divorce, and his impeachment by the Texas House. But he is Trumpy as hell. He is also probably the only Republican in Texas who could lose a statewide race. He may be to Texas what Roy Moore was to Alabama: a bridge too far. Trump has stayed out of the primary so far, waiting to see how it develops. (V)