Jul.30

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Election News: U.S. Senate

Note that when we do these "round-up" items, we only cover those races where there has been some meaningful bit of news. We got a number of e-mails last week along the lines of "What about the governor's race in [STATE X]?" That is because there was no news, or at least no news we were aware of, related to the governor's race in [STATE X]. Of course, we can't keep our ears to the ground in all 50 states, so we are always grateful for heads-up about interesting gubernatorial/U.S. Senate/U.S. House news at items@electoral-vote.com. Also note that we have capsules at the Senate candidates and Governor's races links above.

And now, the latest Senate-race news:

• Georiga: We are not sure where Georiga is, but as of this week, Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) is running for the U.S. Senate there. He announced his campaign with an ad that ends with this thought:
  
  
  
  Fun fact: "Sweet Georiga Brown" is the theme song of the Harelm Globetrotters.
  
  It is our guess that Collins actually intends to run in the state of Georgia. If so, it's not a great start to make such a big mistake in your launch ad. We suspect there will be more than a few jokes at his expense during the campaign. Our helpful advice: If the jokes give you heartburn, Rep. Collins, a few bites of a plain baked potatoe can help.
  
  Collins is probably the best candidate the GOP could have hoped for, once Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) took a pass. Certainly, he's better than Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). That said, Collins will now face a bruising primary against Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA). They will probably compete to show which of them is the Trumpiest of them all, and then will have to turn around and run in the general election in a state where Trump is not especially well liked. Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) can sit back, relax, and enjoy looking at his campaign bank account statements and his polling numbers. At the moment, he has more than $15 million on hand, and he's up between 3 and 10 points in hypothetical matchups against both Collins and Carter.
  
  
• Kentucky: The mud is already flying on the Republican side of the contest. Prominent local businessman Nate Morris got in last week and, just to make clear where he stands, he made the announcement on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast. The other three Republicans in the race immediately slammed Morris as a closet liberal and a faux Trumper. Should be lots of fun.
  
  Meanwhile, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) favors former state AG (and former McConnell aide) Daniel Cameron as his successor. It's not going so well; after raising a relatively paltry $508,000 in Q1, Cameron raised just $365,000 in Q2. That's called "headed in the wrong direction," and it's not gonna cut the mustard when the other leading candidate, Rep. Andy Barr (R), has more than $6 million in the bank.
  
  
• Maine: Pollster Morning Consult gave Susan Collins something to be "concerned" about this week. In the last 3 months, her net approval among Maine voters had dropped 12 points. She was at 47% approve, 44% disapprove back in April, and now she's at 42% approve, 51% disapprove. That's a move from net of +3 to a net of -9. No other senator dropped so much.
  
  While one would not want to read too much into this, with so many lifetimes left until the actual election, Collins' net approval at this point in 2019 was +12. She ended up winning that election by 9 points. So, tentatively, she has some work to do.
  
  
• North Carolina: The biggest news of the last week is from the Tar Heel State, as the Democrats bagged their man when former governor Roy Cooper agreed to take the plunge. If you would like to see his announcement ad, it is here. Readers will be happy to hear that he spelled both "North" and "Carolina" correctly. In his first 24 hours after declaring, Cooper raised $3.4 million. That is very impressive for a single day, and one this far out, but it's also just a start. The last Democrat to run for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina (Cheri Beasley) ultimately raised over $38 million. And she wasn't a popular former two-term governor in an absolutely critical race.
  
  Cooper's entry into the race promptly caused former representative Wiley Nickel (D) to drop out. Rep. Don Davis (D) has hinted at a run, but up against the Cooper buzz saw, he's presumably having second thoughts. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's latest preferred candidate (after two or three others took a pass) is RNC Chair Michael Whatley. There's been no Cooper vs. Whatley polling, as yet, but in all the Cooper matchups that HAVE been polled, the former governor has been on top by 1-4 points.
  
  
• Ohio: Now that the Democrats have their preferred candidate in North Carolina, it's time for the pooh-bahs to turn their attention to other winnable states. And so it is that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was in Ohio last weekend, to persuade former senator Sherrod Brown (D) to try to get his old job back. Brown has made no comments, thus far, but he would be far and away the Democrats' best hope to flip the seat currently occupied by Sen. Jon Husted (R). It's tough to unseat an incumbent, but not impossible, as Brown himself learned last year. Further, Husted isn't a full-fledged incumbent, as he was appointed to the job, and did not win it himself. Appointed senators' track record is about 50/50.
  
  
• South Carolina: It is hard to imagine a sequence of events that would end with this seat in Democratic hands. So, the best that members of the blue team can hope for is that the much-disliked Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) gets booted out on his rear by another Republican. It might happen, as Paul Dans, one of the key figures behind Project 2025, announced a primary challenge this week.
  
  Graham rates poorly in the "spine" department, but very highly in the "getting reelected" department. That said, he's dared to challenge Donald Trump on a few occasions, and MAGA voters are very unforgiving types. Dans, by contrast, is all-in on the President. It is possible that this race could be decided by Trump's endorsement. However, these days, Trump's main goal is to keep his batting average as high as is possible. It would not surprise us at all if he makes no endorsement, or if he uses a trick he's used in several other races, and endorsed both of the Trumpy candidates. It is our guess, based on no data whatsoever, that Dans' best and only hope is if he is the ONLY Trump-backed candidate. Otherwise, Graham's incumbency and $15-million-and-counting war chest will be too much to overcome.
  
  
• Texas: You might have noticed that Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who is not all that Trumpy, has nonetheless veered in a very Trumpy direction in the last month or two. For example, as we noted last week, Cornyn is leading the charge (along with Lindsey Graham) to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Barack Obama.
  
  This may have something to do with the fact that Trumpy challenger Ken Paxton, the wildly corrupt Texas AG, is absolutely crushing Cornyn in primary polls. There have been four polls of the race released in the last two months, and they had Paxton up by 22, 16, 10 and 19 points. It is hard to imagine how Cornyn might meaningfully change the trajectory of the race; he's already doing what he can in the Senate to shore up his support. Meanwhile, Paxton is apparently bulletproof, and cannot be harmed by scandal. The most recent poll was taken after Paxton's wife left him for being a philandering lech, and yet it had Paxton at 57% and Cornyn at 38%. Maybe Cornyn should find someone who is very good at Photoshop, and can create some photos of Paxton with Jeffrey Epstein.
  
  Democrats are praying, chanting, burning incense, rubbing their good luck stones, and otherwise appealing to the higher power of their choice that Paxton knocks Cornyn off. The majority of Texas Republicans are clearly fine with a Trumpy sleazeball, but the majority of Texas voters might not be.

We'll cover the House shortly. (Z)