Dem
47
GOP
53
Kamala Harris said she would take until the end of summer to make a decision on whether or not to run for governor of California. That works out to a deadline of September 21, but apparently she did not need the last 7 weeks or so, because she announced yesterday that she's going to take a pass.
Actually, what she said was that she "will not run for Governor in this election." That presumably leaves open the possibility that she could run in the future. However, California always gives its governors a second term. The last governor to be booted out after one term or less was Culbert Olson in 1942. Assuming that tradition holds, then Harris' next open-seat shot would be in 2034, when she will be 70. It's not impossible; Jerry Brown was 72 when he commenced his second stint as governor. But it is unlikely.
Readers hardly need us to tell them that Harris' decision means that she's surely planning to take another shot at the presidency in 2028. Undoubtedly, her people have done polling, and she likes the presidential math well enough to give it a go. What we would like to know is how good Harris' odds needed to be in order for her to take the presidential plunge. She would have been an overwhelming favorite to become the next governor, something very close to a 100% chance. If being president is, say, ten times better than being governor of California, then was a 10% chance of victory enough for her to take a shot? Or maybe being president is twenty times better. If so, then is a 5% chance of victory enough to make it worthwhile to pursue the big prize?
In any case, Harris ran a strong 2024 campaign, particularly under the circumstances, and she will enter 2028 with name recognition, a strong political network, and lots of money in the bank. That said, there are also two obvious problems that immediately present themselves. The first is that there are plenty of Democrats who think the 2028 nominee needs to be a bland white man. The second is that one of Harris' leading, and loudest, rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination is fellow Californian Gov. Gavin Newsom. Things could get ugly as they jockey for position, as they will be competing for some of the same financial backers, and they will both be after California's giant pile of delegates. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) are probably giving big sighs of relief right now.
With Harris out, the California gubernatorial election, at least on the Democratic side, will be a real barnburner. There are already 11 declared Democrats, at least 7 of those are serious, and at least 5 of those have very clear constituencies that will support them. There's been very little polling, and most polls that HAVE been conducted included Harris. That said, to the extent that we have data, the data says that former representative Katie Porter is the early favorite.
In a roundabout way, Harris' decision might also be good news for the California GOP. It is plausible that, if Harris had gotten in, the non-Harris Democratic vote would have coalesced around one alternative candidate (probably Porter). In that scenario, the primary could have concluded with Harris getting the most votes and the non-Harris Democratic alternative getting the second most. Given California's top-two system, that would have meant no Republican on the general election ballot. It's never happened in a gubernatorial race, but it has happened in a U.S. Senate race. Anyhow, with the Democratic vote split probably four or five or six ways, the usual 25% or so that the leading Republican gets in the primaries will almost certainly be enough for that Republican to make it to the general, where they will then get leveled. (Z & V)