Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats are jubilant that former North Carolina governor Roy Cooper jumped into the open-seat Senate race in North Carolina. That makes the election there a toss-up that might even lean slightly in Cooper's favor since, politics aside, people know and like Cooper and no one in North Carolina has ever heard of his probable opponent, Michael Whatley. Republicans will try to dredge up something heinous Cooper said or did 40 years ago, but that tends not to work so well with people who are already very well known. Cooper has held statewide office in North Carolina for 24 years and left office with a net approval rating of +14. As an aside, unless you are from eastern North Carolina, you are probably pronouncing the former governor's name wrong. It is not KOO-per. (Hint: Think ə).
But North Carolina is only one of the Senate races the Democrats need to win to take control of the Senate. And in the other ones, they don't have a good candidate yet. The next easiest seat to flip is Maine. The incumbent, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), is concerned. And with good reason. A recent Morning Consult poll shows that 38% of Mainers approve of her job performance and 54% disapprove of it. She is clearly vulnerable, but you can't beat someone with no one, and so far the Democrats have no one. They want term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) to run, but she is 77 and hasn't said what she is going to do yet. If she doesn't run, next would be one of the two representatives. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) represents ME-01, a bit of the southeast Atlantic coast, but that is where half the Mainers live. It is D+9. The rest of the state, ME-02, is the biggest district east of the Mississippi, and it is represented by Jared Golden. ME-02 is the second-most rural district in the country and is R+4. Democrats want him to stay put since he is the only Democrat in the state who could win that seat. Any random state senator could win ME-01, so the Democrats' Plan B if Mills opts out is Pingree.
Next up is Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is running for reelection. Again, the Democrats know who they want, but the desired candidate hasn't said what her plans are yet. That candidate is Mary Peltola, the former at-large representative. Democrats know that Peltola can win statewide, since she did it twice before. She is a Yup'ik-American and has four children of her own and three stepchildren, which no doubt keeps her busy. If she opts out, there really isn't a Plan B. Alaska has a PVI of R+6, but it is an oddball state where unconventional candidates sometimes win. It also has ranked-choice voting.
Montana and Ohio are kind of in the same basket. Both are red states, but Democrats know who they want in both states. It is former senator Jon Tester in Montana and former senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Both have won multiple elections to the Senate. In a blue wave, they might be able to overcome their states' PVIs (R+10 and R+5, respectively) and win. Ohio is probably the easier of the two because (1) it is less red than Montana and (2) Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) was appointed to his seat and appointed senators don't have a great track record.
If Texas AG Ken Paxton wins the Republican primary there, the Republicans will have a candidate quality problem and the Democrats will have a chance. The Party wants former NFL player and former representative Colin Allred to be their nominee, especially if the GOPer is Paxton. However, Allred will first have to win a primary against former USAF colonel and astronaut Terry Virts. There is also a good chance that state Rep. James Talarico will jump in, while Beto O'Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro have also expressed interest.
Beyond that, there are a couple of longshots. In Iowa, if Sen. Joni "We all are going to die" Ernst decides not to run, maybe a Democrat could win in a blue tsunami, but the Party doesn't have a candidate. In Nebraska, if independent Dan Osborn beats Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE), he might vote with the blue team sometimes. Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) was also appointed (when Marco Rubio resigned to become secretary of state). Florida has become fairly red of late, but in a blue wave maybe a strong Democrat has a chance, if the party can find one. Where is Claude Pepper when you need him? Oh yeah, dead. (V)