Jul.31

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Democrats Are Getting Slightly More Optimistic about 2026

Democrats are getting a bit more optimistic about 2026 due to several factors:

• Health care is always an issue and Democrats will flog the cuts to Medicaid for all it is worth.
• The other parts of the BBB are polling poorly and the more the voters learn about the BBB, the less they like it.
• Donald Trump has not fulfilled his promise to get prices down.
• In theory, deportations are popular, but in practice they are very unpopular.
• A CNN poll showed that 72% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting, vs. 50% of Republicans.
• Historically, the president's party gets hit hard in the midterms.
• When the president is especially unpopular, as Trump is, it hurts his party.
• Depending on how Epsteingate plays out, some Republican voters may feel deceived and not vote.
• College-educated voters, a majority of whom are now Democrats, represent a larger percentage of the electorate in midterms.

Winning the House will be easier than winning the Senate because there are more targets (although new gerrymanders in Texas and Ohio could make that more difficult unless Democrats fight back in California, New York, and New Jersey—more on this tomorrow). Still, keep in mind that the election is 15 months away and in politics a week is a long time. (V)