Dem
47
GOP
53
There aren't a lot of major elections this year, so we have to cherish each one. There are gubernatorial elections in two states, New Jersey and Virginia, and they will be carefully watched. In New Jersey, the Democrat often wins, but there have been Republican governors recently, like Chris Christie. The margin is sometimes an indicator of the national mood. If it is close, Republicans may do well next year. If it is a blowout, Democrats may do well the next year.
Now that the candidates are known in New Jersey, the general election polling is starting. A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll has Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) at 45% and Republican Jack Ciattarelli (R) at 37%. The PVI for New Jersey is D+4. Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in the Garden State by 6 points in 2024. So Sherrill is outperforming the baseline.
For the most part, people are voting the party line, with 87% of Democrats backing Sherrill and 86% of Republicans backing Ciattarelli. Independents are for Sherrill by a 30% to 23% margin. This means that many independents are undecided. Ciattarelli will need to pull in large numbers of them to make up for the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey. But he has to walk a fine line. If he keeps Donald Trump at a distance, he may win more independents, but some Republicans may be turned off and not vote. If he hugs Trump closely, most Republicans will vote but he will lose independents.
Ciattarelli ran for governor in 2021 and lost by only 3 points. Now he is doing worse against Sherrill. (V)