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GOP
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Joe Biden upset the primary schedule in 2024 by trying to put South Carolina as the first primary state. Now that his reputation is tarnished, some Democrats are starting to think about the 2028 primary schedule and don't especially want South Carolina to go first. Biden wanted South Carolina to go first because Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) saved his bacon in 2020 and this was the repayment. But some Democrats want to go back to New Hampshire first. Strategy aside, changing the primary dates requires cooperation from the states and neither New Hampshire nor South Carolina is likely to cooperate in making South Carolina first.
The argument against New Hampshire is that it is basically an all-white state, which disadvantages Black candidates. The argument for New Hampshire is that it is basically an all-white state, which disadvantages Black candidates. The Democrats ran a Black candidate in 2024 and she lost. So, the thinking goes, maybe a white candidate next time would do better, especially if the Democrats seriously want to bring back working-class white men. Some progressives are arguing that a better choice to win back working-class white men is Nevada.
This past weekend, two potential 2028 candidates, Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) and Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), showed up in the Palmetto State to speak at Clyburn's famous Fish Fry and test the waters. Walz talked about needing to expand the map. He spent the entire campaign visiting the same seven swing states over and over. He said that if Democrats never show up anywhere else, they are not going to flip any new states. Moore focused on Donald Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill, which will push thousands of kids into poverty in order to enrich Trump's cronies.
If the DNC wants New Hampshire to hold the first primary, that will be easy. The state already has a law saying it must hold the first primary. All the DNC has to do is go with the flow. If it wants South Carolina or Nevada to go first, it will somehow have to get those states to change their dates, which will make New Hampshire move its date earlier. Former New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner once said he would schedule the primary on Halloween of the year before the election if he had to in order to go first. The current NH SoS is David Scanlan. He is a Republican and is not going to go out of his way to help the Democrats, that's for sure. The battle about the order has only begun, but it is sure to continue for months or years since it could have a major effect on who the Democratic nominee is in 2028.
One question no one is asking: Which state should go first if the goal were to win the 2028 election? Black Democrats want South Carolina to make the pick because it is likely to pick a Black Democrat. Progressives want Nevada because its many hotels and restaurants are full of union workers. In turn, each identity group wants one of its own to get the nomination, without thinking too much about how the party can optimize the chances of the strongest candidate being nominated. Maybe a state that best mirrors the country. Possibly Michigan or Wisconsin. (V)