Dem
47
GOP
53
Another day, another election that is being framed as "Trumpism" vs., well, something that is not Trumpism. In this case, the nation is Poland, and the president-elect is Karol Nawrocki. It is not too hard to see Nawrocki as a Trumpy fellow, since he is a right-wing populist with no experience in political office, and since he was endorsed by both Trump and by CPAC.
The election was a run-off, and was actually held on Sunday. The results were so close, it was not clear who won until fairly late on Monday. It was a squeaker, with Nawrocki claiming 10,606,877 votes (50.89%) and Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal, taking 10,237,286 (49.11%).
Nawrocki's victory will likely create a lot of gridlock in a system that seems designed for it—even more than the American system, if that is possible. As president, he is head of state, and will oversee foreign policy. He also has the ability to veto legislation. The more important/powerful job is that of prime minister, who is the head of government. That post is currently held by Donald Tusk; he is center-right, but in Europe, even in Poland, that equates to something like "on the same page as Joe Biden." Tusk had trouble working with current president Andrzej Duda, who is right-wing, but a bit less so than Nawrocki. So, there's every reason to believe Tusk won't be able to govern effectively with Nawrocki in office. And Tusk's party, Civic Platform (PO), doesn't have the votes to override vetoes.
Many commenters fall into the habit of declaring "Trumpism rejected" or "Trumpism triumphant" after these elections. We think that works in cases like Canada or Australia, where Trump himself is clearly an issue. Beyond that, however, we think these elections actually tend to illustrate two other, semi-related points: (1) many nations are grappling with whether they should embrace right-wing populism or not, and sometimes they decide "yes" and sometimes "no," but it's usually very close; and (2) we remain in an era where votes are often used to punish the party in power (such as Tusk and his PO), whatever the politics of that party may be.
The next big foreign election is... today, as the good people of South Korea will head to the polls to choose a new president. We will tell you right now that, barring a miracle, liberal Lee Jae-myung is going to defeat Kim Moon Soo without breaking a sweat. However, this is very clearly a "throw the bums out" election, as Kim is being blamed for the actions of his fellow People Power Party member Yoon Suk Yeol, who as president tried (and failed) to impose martial law on the nation. (Z)