Dem
47
GOP
53
A group of 13 moderate House Republicans wrote a letter to their Senate colleagues begging them to restore to the One Big Beautiful Bill the clean energy tax credits that they themselves voted to eliminate. Truly profiles in courage. Their districts benefit from the credits but they didn't have the guts to tell Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) that they would not vote for the bill unless the credits were restored. Of course, if the Senate puts the credits back, the House Freedom Caucus will balk.
Another hot issue is the SALT limit. In the House bill it is $40,000, but unlike representatives from affluent suburban districts, there are no Republican senators from affluent blue high-tax states, so the Senate is likely to lower the cap, making it harder for the bill to pass the House the second time.
Another issue that is going to tear the Senate apart is Medicaid. There are at least four Republican senators who don't like the big cuts to Medicaid: Susan Collins (ME), Josh Hawley (MO), Jim Justice (WV) and Lisa Murkowski (AK). Removing the cuts to Medicaid from the House bill will be expensive. It can be (partially) paid for by lowering the SALT cap, but again, that will anger the House Republicans from New York and California. Another factor here is that Donald Trump does not want cuts to Medicaid, so making the math work will be tough.
SNAP (food stamps) is another tough nut to crack. The House bill cuts $267 billion from the program. This means some people will go hungry. Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee John Boozman (R-AR) understands that his colleagues don't want to run on "They deserve to be hungry" next year, but he hasn't been able to yet cobble together an alternative that has the votes.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) don't like adding to the deficit, so they are going to be a problem unless the bill is at least revenue-neutral, which can only be done with magic asterisk accounting, which Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough may not approve of. If both of them vote no, then two more defections will sink the bill. The bottom line is that the Senate is nowhere near where it needs to be to get the bill signed by July 4, which is the current goal.
Then there is the PR war. Two outside groups, Unrig Our Economy and Families over Billionaires, are launching a $5 million advertising campaign in seven states where Republican senators up in 2026 are potentially vulnerable. The ads are already running in Iowa and are featuring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and her now-infamous line: "Well, we all are going to die." Here is that ad:
The ad is very effective. It is only 1 min. Watch it.
The ad being run in North Carolina against Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) says that Tillis will soon vote on a bill that will force rural hospitals to close and take health care away from 580,000 North Carolinians just to pay for tax breaks for billionaires. Here is that ad:
The ad in Maine is aimed, of course, at Susan Collins. It says life is getting more expensive and Collins wants to cut taxes for billionaires. It also notes that the bill will shut down rural hospitals and raise insurance costs. Here is that ad:
Ads targeting Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Josh Hawley (R-MO), John Husted (R-OH) and Dan Sullivan (R-AK) are still being prepared. (V)