Jun.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

How Voters Get Their News Matters

There is an increasing amount of evidence that there is a strong correlation between not being aware of the news and supporting Donald Trump. For example, among people who had never heard of Kilmar Abrego Garcia (or didn't know much about him) Trump's approval rating was 55%; among those who knew about that story, it was 46%, nine points lower. This, and related data points, might suggest that when people learn about what Trump is doing, some of them stop supporting him. Alternatively, it could be that people who like Trump don't bother to consume much news, but people who don't like him consume more of it.

Data from Catalist show that the newest additions to Trump's 2024 coalition were low consumers of news, especially Black people (54% follow the news), voters under 30 (53%), and Latinos (50%).

A gap between the informed/not informed voters also holds for specific topics. Among people who follow the news, people prefer the Republicans' positions on the economy over the Democrats' by 1 point. Among people who don't follow the news, they prefer the Republicans on the economy by 13 points.

Ill-informed voters tend not to vote in midterm elections, which could work to the Democrats' advantage in 2026. If many of Trump's 2024 voters sit out 2026 because they are barely aware there is an election, it could reduce Republican turnout more than it reduces Democratic turnout. Midterm turnout is always lower than presidential-year turnout. In 2022, 108 million people voted in House elections; in 2024, 152 million people turned out.

Navigator Research, a Democratic polling company, has done some focus groups on how people consume news, which is different from how much news they consume:

• Passive vs. Active Consumers There were a substantial number of people who didn't seek out news in any form, but were interested in hearing about it when family and friends talked to them about it. Of course, this filters the news through the other person's views. Republicans like to talk about trade and tariffs. Democrats like to talk about cuts to Medicaid.
  
  
• Avoidance vs. Not Bothering People avoid the news for different reasons. Democratic women, in particular, avoid the news because it is too upsetting. They don't want to hear what Trump is up to now. It's like waiting for the world to end. Republicans don't find the news upsetting, but they don't seek it out because they don't trust any news sources.
  
  
• Politics via Social Media Voters were shown clips of social media figures giving political content. Democrats were not fooled and didn't like it. It wasn't reported how Republicans felt. What is clear, though, is that people are getting information from indirect sources, e.g., from podcasts, YouTube videos, etc. That is different from the old way where people watched 30-second spots produced by candidates. It also means that paid ads are less and less an effective way to reach people, and appearing on podcasts, TikTok, etc. is increasingly more important.

All in all, how people get news and how much news they get is changing rapidly and campaigns need to deal with it. (V)